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Autobytel Inc. Message Board

  • aardvark1492 aardvark1492 Mar 2, 2012 12:18 PM Flag

    Does anyone know the specifics on

    Roth Capital's news release on ABTL. I've searched all over the net and can't find anything. What's the point of putting out news items if they aren't available to the public?

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    • ABTL: 4Q11 Results Ahead; Auto Sales
      Outlook Bright
      ABTL is poised to benefit from a resurgence in auto sales as pent up
      demand and increased accessibility to financing is drawing consumers back to
      dealerships at the highest levels since 2007. We believe the company’s higher
      sales close rates will continue to lead to market share gains in 2012. Reiterate
      Buy rating and $2 price target.
      Rebounding auto sales support purchase request growth: Purchase
      request revenue improved 9.8% y/y to $15.1M as the company benefited from
      a significant rebound in light vehicle sales and pricing improvements on its
      purchase requests. Light vehicle sales volumes improved 10% y/y in 4Q11
      according to JD Power, ahead of expectations. ABTL delivered approx. 1.0M
      auto purchase requests in 4Q11, up from approx. 917k in 4Q10. We believe the
      company’s purchase requests continue to outpace its competitors in regards
      to sales close rates and expect a larger portion of budget to flow towards ABTL
      in 2012.
      4Q11 results ahead; in-house lead drives gross margin higher: 4Q11
      revenue of $16.2M , up 10.7% y/y, was above our estimate of $15.9M and
      GAAP EPS of $0.01 was in-line with our estimate. 4Q11 gross margin of 42.5%
      improved from that of 39.3% in 4Q10 and was ahead of our estimate of 40.7%,
      due to a favorable shift towards internally generated purchase leads and a 26%
      y/y improvement in high-margin advertising revenue to $1.1M. In 4Q11, ABTL
      generated approx. 70% of leads internally, compare to approx. 43% in 4Q10.
      GAAP EPS of $0.01 in 4Q11 improved from GAAP loss per share of ($0.06)
      in 4Q10. We are slightly lowering our FY12 estimates to reflect mix shift from
      higher margin retail leads to lower margin wholesale leads as demand from
      OEM's outpaces dealer purchase request demand.
      ABTL to benefit from y/y vehicle sales growth in 2012: JD Power recently
      increased its 2012 light vehicle sales estimate to 15.1M units, up from 14.0M
      previously as improved access to consumer credit and pent up demand draw
      new auto purchasers back to dealerships. The current 15.1M SAAR estimate
      represents the highest level of light vehicle sales since 2007. In addition to
      purchase request growth, we expect advertising revenue to increase approx.
      20% y/y as auto manufacturers, in particular Japanese OEM’s, attempt to gain
      market share.
      Introducing FY13 estimates. Reiterate Buy rating and $2.00 price target.

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