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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

  • wgrsh wgrsh May 14, 2013 12:08 PM Flag

    Beating Q2 estimates

    Just an initial quick look at Q2, I have LCC beating by 20+ cent over Yahoo current estimates. That assumes a 25 cent per gallon benefit over early April fuel guidance and I used Yahoo revenue figures (will work on mine own). Also that beat is after tax per LCC's guidance on having to start reporting after tax eps. The tax subtraction I used was about 37-38 cents/share ... tax on earnings above $100 million in Q2 (That is a non-cash tax expense, so won't impact cash flow.)

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    • Really need to beat the 1.61 YOY number - if not, the headlines will be that LCC did worse than previous year even if they beat an analyst number.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to mitchad1
      • Using Yahoo revenue, it looks like they can beat the $1.61 ... gee whiz, I know it might take a double take, but I would think the financial/investor community would understand the starting of a non cash tax charge against eps when comparing yoy ... don't you think? Well, you said what you think. I hope it's not that way ... it will be a record Q2.

        In the Yahoo revenue estimate for 2014, the "low estimate" it has a quarterly revenue figure which I think was meant for this Q2 ... and it would have been a high estimate for this quarter.

        Mitch ... what's your understanding of the share count for the merged company? Or do you see a bit of confusion in that area?

    • By the way, and many may have noticed ... Yahoo estimates are messed up. I don't know if Yahoo just copies them from some where else, or it is their mistake. It looks like someone came in with an upgrade to Q2, but the numbers were put in the full year for 2014 causing 2014 estimates to drop (since it was quarterly estimates averaged in to the full year 2014. And instead of raising Q2, it lowered Q2 and subsequently full year for 2013. It's been there for a number of days uncorrected ...

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