I work for Shell and will be retiring 2/1/2014. I have alot of Shell stock and will soon be putting half in 2 good bond funds. I have read many of your posts. You seem to know the chart on rds-a very well. I would like to see the chart. Does it say we could reach 72-74 dollars soon? I know it is not 100% fool-proof.I want to pull the trigger to start protecting my gains. Thanks.
Please do not consider what follows as advice...only some additional info that you may (or may not) consider as you plan for retirement. And, I understand that you did not ask for my advice...
1) What one does depends, in part, upon what one has saved. If you have just enough to last for your retirement, then conservation of principle while attempting to secure safe earnings is of most importance. If you have more than you think that you will need in retirement (that will only be a guess for most), then one is free to take more risk in an attempt to build principle/capital.
2) I have only minimally invested in bonds (for short term parking of cash) - always felt as if I were "loaning" capital to others on which they were making money that I could have made.
3) In retirement, there are worse investments that RDS (and I consider bonds to be a worse investment). Energy is something that will always be required to run the economies of the world...so, it should hold up better than or as well as most sectors. And, the dividend is not all that bad...and, possibly better than bonds over the long term future moving forward.
4) The advantage of leaving your retirement in the Prov. Fund is that trades are free. The downside is the limited choices (although there are many more than in the distant past) and that trading RDS is at the end of the day. The advantage of rolling to an IRA is wider choice, the ability to execute during the day and more flexibility to trade options (if one chooses to do that). The downside is higher trading costs...but those are now pretty minor.
5) Another advantage of rolling to an IRA is that one can then convert to a Roth. But, that only pays off if one can pay the taxes from funds outside of the IRA/Roth (if assume the same tax rates and investment success, there is no advantage to converting if pay the taxes from the IRA/Roth).
Personal disclosure: I converted my PF and 401K to an IRA at retirement. Then converted about 1/3 to a Roth. I use the Roth to trade...and the returns (which are greater than from my long term investments which are in my IRA) are tax free (so far...). I have never done the conservative readjustments to my portfolio that are recommended when one retires. I have continued to manage everything the same way in which I did prior to retirement except for two things: 1) I put part of my retirement funds with a specialist (in case I were to be wrong and to spread the investments - but I keep a short fuse on whether these funds remain with the "specialist"). And, second, I now trade quite a bit - which I did not do while working (for fun, to keep my mind active and for profit).
Short term, I would not be waiting for the RDS high price point within the next couple of weeks to convert half of what I have saved into bonds. If I were going to convert part to bonds short term, I would just do it. Personally, I would take a longer view and plan for converting when RDS is in the 80s or more...which should occur when the economy recovers and independent of your retirement date. I would not rush to make major decisions based upon a retirement date - I would make those decisions based upon other events. But, that is just me...
Short term, Thursday is earnings announcement...and, I do not think we will see 72 before then. After that, it is x-date...and, I can't see that far at present...
Even though I didn't ask for this advice either, I have to comment and feel this was one of the best questions ever posted on this board.
Guru, this is an excellent strategy, and one I agree with. It is super conservative, protecting capital, and allowing enough risk for growth. You are to be commended, and supports my opinion that the RDS board is one of the best; great advice without the name calling and belittling.
You've got a number of retired Shell employees on this board and many others reading but not posting that are planning retirement. I won't weigh in at this time, but will opt to gauge the responses for those that already retired to see if they will share what worked for them. I'm looking at a possible March 2013 retirement date, and have a strategy of my own. Stay with Fidelity and the board if you are able to manage your nest egg yourself. The free advice and tips you get from the board are far better than paid "advisors" only interested in your commissions. ALL investors I've spoken with did better managing their own account. JMHO.
My observation and advice with taking retirement is, if you sit on the couch and lose your sense of purpose, you will die. Stay busy doing what you enjoy and keep enough challenges in your life to keep your mind working. Don't USE your mind, you will LOSE your mind. My retirement date only means I will be doing something ELSE. It doesn't mean I will quit working. Good luck with your plans.
Turbo - you strike me as the type of guy who won't have trouble staying active after retirement. I've been retired for over 12 years now and every day is a new adventure. Wife and I just back from a Jurrasic dig in Wyoming - found Camarasaurus vertebra plus ribs using wisk brooms, oyster tools and small paint brushes - what a blast for six days. Taking our two granddaughters to a dude ranch next week for horse back riding, chuck wagon "dining", frog jumping, country dancing, etc. Can't believe I ever had time to work at a job .......