I'd love to hear your current opinion.
Your posts we're excellent. They we're well thought out, very informative, and added a tremendous amount to the discussion.
Are you still out there?
How bad and how low can they go? Their new devices all appear to be geared toward reimbursement by incorporating needle emg's and other protocol. MD's will never be fooled by them again.
They have lots of cash from recent offerings, so logic says they are a buy below $2 to at least go over $4 in 12-18 months.
That being said logically, I haven't seen any announcemnts of sales and revenue increases, so who knows. If you are a risk taker, I would still say a buy under $2 will generate at least 50% over the next year.
They have to have learnned their lesson , so I say the upside is much better than the downside risk of them just dying out.
Hang on to GTPH. You will be able to pick a target and get out with a nice pop if you want when they announce some more good news. The news that they are at least submitting their Module II and III to the FDA only means the clock starts ticking toward a 6-9 month USA approval. Maybe the submission will be news, but I don't see that as any great deal as opposed to them NOT submitting which is a near impossibility.
A nice deal with a foreign distributor and/or sales by that or other distributors would be a worth a pop, imo.
Jeff is a smart dude. its the nuro story all over again. Sure the tech is better...easier etc but it doesn't matter if its not $$$ smart for MD's. MD's are so tight on cash right now they wont buy much of anything at all unless it helps them pay the lease for the Mercedes.
And Jeff is also correct in saying that a company wants to sell the device so it can book and demonstrate sales - and then have the razor model with the disposable tip etc.
jeff I boought this because of you...so lets hope you get excited again.
Thanks for the accolades, howerever undeserved.
I still absolutely love the technology, both for cervical cancer and esophagus cancer.
The "someday" is the question Their PMA modules II and III have not been submitted. What is the delay?
They met the reqirements of Euorpean CE mark registration, but I haven't heard if they had actually gotten final approval. Internatianol sales were forecaast for Spring this year so when do they start?
Your previous post about them hiring "accounts receivable" staff sounds good to me. They will have to come internationally since final FDA approval can't come until all modules are submitted and the review could take 6 months or more, meaning GTPH will probably not go to market in the USA for 8-12 months.
The international market could actually be bigger than the domestic since they focus more on disease prevention and cure. Countries that bear these costs are more likely to implement GTPH because of its incredible long term benefits.
As it now stands, GTPH will only get reimbursed for a colposcopy referral from a postive PAP.The colposcopy done by GTPH, however great it is, pays no more than the current colposcopy. So, if it does not pay more, why would an MD invest about $18,000 for a new device, regardless of its proficiency and increased benefits, if the MD does not get paid more and his current colposcope is paid for and still considered the "standard of care"?
That is the cunumdrum of current medical reimbursement. MD's are not paid for better care or results, only on previously structured CPT code reimbursements.
Plus, GTPH will have a "disposable" tip that MD's will have to buy. There is no code I know of that reimburses for that (present colposcopes have none), so they will have to try and pass it along either to the patient or get the insurance comanpy to pay. That requires more paperwork, which MD's hate add'l paperwork when trying to get paid.
What is the answer? Get the AMA and CPT advisory committee to come with a "screening" code to be used as an alternative to PAP that pays more than a PAP (only $20 or less). Current colposcopy code pays around $200 or up to $300 from private insurance, so that is a good reimb. that GTPH is qualified to get for MD's, but they are getting it now with their present colposcopy, so GTPH does not increase their revenue, only their results (which they are not paid for).
Your argument may be that all MD's will rush to get a new device that is so much better than the old one, but unfourtunately, that is not the case. The AMA and insurance companies , somehow, have to make it "worth their while" by either declaring spectroscopy to be the new "standard of care" or by creating a code that pays them more. Currently, GTPH will never replace the PAP, although it is infinitely better, unless the MD is paid more for performing it under a new code.
Therefore, my humble opinion is that GTPH is a company with a great long term future, but not without a long process of re-configuration within the reimbursemnt system. I also know of no present code for image detection or examination of the esophagus, so they will need a whole new code for that procedure, which I think they will ultimately receive, but many years down the road.
The near term future changes if internatioanl sales sky rocket, which come happen, or they get bought out by an internatioanl company with a strong presence all over the world, which is also a realistic option.
They are unquestionably far ahead of anyone else in this market. Reimbursement and revenue remain the keys to their success.
I pulled out some old articles and came across an article titled "10 New Technologies That Could Change Healthcare" from a MD Buyline Clinical Analyst in 2005. The Guided Therapeutics product (it was Spectrx back when this article was written in 2005) was one of the 10 featured products. I could not find a link to the pdf I have probably because it's so old.
MD Buyine provides info about products to hospitals and healthcare facilities to help in their decision making.
But basically, paraphrasing from this article, the premise of the value of the GTHP device is this:
Since there is no lab result from the optical test all of the reimbursement would go to the physician and not the lab. That would be a huge win for both the general practioner (economic) and the patient (no pain, instant and more accurate result).
So, if I have this correct, instead of a referral to a specialist (Colposcopist) if a patient with a abnormal Pap is triaged with the GTHP device at the general practioner office the 100% of the reimbursement would stay with that doctor and nothing would go to the Colposcopist or the lab, unless of course the triage result was positive.
Do I have this right?
What do you think?
I have a ton of old information I keep and I do reread it from time to time.
Thank you so much.
I haven't come across anything out there in my research that comes close to the explaination you gave.
You discussed and explained the most important issue beyond the technology....the business model.
Even with all my reading, I needed a clear explanation of the reimbursement potential in the US. You did a great job and service to all investors in GTHP.
I'm in total agreement with you that the international market has immense potential in the short run. The FDA approval pathway should provide a definite long term value and potential catalyst for the stock price, but I feel the developing countries is the home run for GTHP. This where there is no lab infrastructure and the "see and treat" potential of the device could save many, many lives. I feel confident management will find a way to exploit the best strategy to success, as complicated and challenging as it may be. They appear to be up to the task.
I certainly won't bail out now after all the difficult years waiting for this company to finally turn corner from R&D to actual sales. From what I know now, I'm still long and strong on this company.
I like being a long term investor in something worthwhile for the world and that has the potential for a large gains. It can be gut wrenching because of the price volatility due to it being thinly traded and a pink sheet stock, but I try to keep my eye on the horizon, as best I can. Even if they fail, which I don't think they will, I would do it all over again.
Thanks again and have a great weekend.