To continue the conversation (I think there is a limit to the number of replies, as there was no reply button under your last post), I think your characterization of the 7 employees having more to do with press releases than lab work is a little simplistic. You stated it yourself earlier in the post - pre-clincial work can be outsourced, well so can everything else - clinical trial work, legal and technical support for FDA filings, even press releases and public relations (why have a full time PR person when you generate about one press release per month) - I assume 90% of actual work being done in moving this company forward is outsourced. The bottom line with GALT is whether their compounds have the clinical value that is being revealed in the pre-clinical work and whether they have solid patents and other IP protections to keep any clinical value that is realized. No doubt, this is a highly speculative play for a lot of reasons, with their lack of funding being one of the more immediate issues. The optimistic scenario is they partner one of the programs (cancer, liver or kidney) to generate enough funds to get the others through proof of concept and then sell the company and/or sign a blockbuster partnership for the lead indication before they have to dilute the share base in any significant way. Given the potential size of the fibrosis markets, there should be enough value in the long run, so even if the optimistic scenario does not play out, it could still be a big winner?
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Ernie, my guess is we will soon see another company paid shill pretending to be an independent analyst release a "report" on how wonderful GALT is as an investment. This will likely be followed by another major dilution that will fund GALT for another 6 months and screw over shareholders even more than in the past. That has been the modus operandi of this company. Nobody will be able to quite figure out how dilutive it will be because of the large number of warrants.
"The bottom line with GALT is whether their compounds have the clinical value that is being revealed in the pre-clinical work...." Here is a Dr. Klosov quote from his new book:
•Galectin targeting therapeutics is in the very early stages and there is as yet no convincing evidence of efficacy in a human disease. The pharmaceutical industry likes proven targets and once there is evidence of an effect in human disease, acivity will increase.
It is surprisingly frank. It is telling you that he does not consider any of the prior Davanat clinical work to be convincing evidence of efficacy in human disease. Now go back and compare that statement to what was published by the various analysts who prepared Davanat infomercials in return for PRW stock. If you want gain some more perspective, go to Dr Anatole Klyosov's home page where he has a treatise titled "How to become a millionaire." It is in Russian, but you can run it through a translator. Not a smoking gun, but an interesting read.
I don't want to beat up on Dr Klyosov, his resume is rather remarkable and you will not find videos of him dancing Gangum style on Youtube. The point I am making is that PRW/GALT has been in the selling itself mode since inception and more often than not, form is emphasized over function. They knew from day one that Davanat would never be approved in South America and if they were willing to fib about that, how can you trust them enough to risk your hard won money investing in the company? Virtually everything we know about them and their drugs comes from them.
I've read Dr. Klyosov's "How to become a millionaire" which seems very unclear and unrealistic. I wonder if his plans for human trials and buy-out by big pharma are based on the same type of thinking. Maybe he would seem more convincing if he posted a video of himself dancing Gangum style on Youtube like Dr Traber did.
Ernie - Thanks for the historical perspective. That is another reason I think it is important to get a partnership in one of the indications sooner, rather than later - i.e. on top of avoiding/minimizing any dilution prior to clinical proof of concept, they really need a 3rd party legit partner to "validate" the technology with a meaningful investment. I had this happen with one of my other holdings (THLD, who did a major deal with Merck) - granted, this was after they had gotten thru Phase II, so proof of concept was already there, but sometimes the market will just not believe in the potential value until big pharma bites off a piece.
I guess I'm in a wait-&-see, sitting on the fence, HOLD mode for the time being. I want to see human clinical trials START, before I consider changing my HOLD stance.
I've been under the impression human clinical trials would start in late January or early February.
Todays press release has caused a lil bump in stock price, but it's not enough for me to change my HOLD stance
HUMAN CLINICAL TRIALS, that what I want to see. And yes, I realize there will certainly require more time that just the year 2013 before meaningful results become known, in my opinion
And you're RIGHT, there is certainly no guarantee that the clinical results will be positive in humans.
We can speculate on the outcome of the human clinical trials from now till........so let's GET STARTED with HUMAN CLINICAL TRIALS.....NOW...... N-O-W, not 6 months from now.
"GALT only has 7 full time employees and most of those have more to do with generating press releases". Don't know how many employees GALT have now, but definitely GALT employees are living comfortable lives thanks to Investors. Especially Traber who needs a big pay check to up size his family now in Atlanta. Does any one know how much GALT is paying Traber for the wonderful job that he is performing?
The bottom line you have mentioned, "whether their compounds have the clinical value that is being revealed in the pre-clinical work and whether they have solid patents and other IP protections to keep any clinical value that is realized." is of great concern to all investors. Most of us are uneducated in this field and trust is something that garners investors. The points that you have stated do not create cause for warm investor feelings.
On the bright side (?), (as you stated) GALT could "partner one of the programs to generate funds ... then sell the company and/or sign a blockbuster partnership for the lead indication before they have to dilute the share base in a significant way". The history of companies that have taken this course of action has not played out well for the small investors. Most of us here do not own a significant share in GALT. The potential for the small investor receiving a royal screwing is increased three fold.
Time will tell.
Human Clinical trials will begin early in 2013 & the company will be bought out before the end of the year, at least that is what thinking some believe will happen.
I have NO IDEA how much time can reasonable expect to transpire from when the first patients are first injected until GALT can present BIG PHARMA with some early indications of how the treatments are going. How many months/years? What is your time frame, "best guess"? Lets say the application is filed & clinical trials begin in mid-February (which I realize is an unrealistic expectation), how many months or years will be needed before GALT will have BIG PHARMA's attention?