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Coach, Inc. Message Board

  • ballfourwalkon ballfourwalkon Jul 23, 2008 1:06 PM Flag

    was in an outlet store

    Sunday last and it was busy. They were ringing the register. I noticed on the handbags the outlet price on the disconitinued inventory (transitional inventory they are not selling on the main stores) is marked down a whopping (sarcastically) a whopping 9% off original store price on most items.

    Boy, now the 72 GPM is now ONLY 63 GPM. I ownder is all the action (volume) in these outlet stores is ever going to be profitable? That would be the remark of a short.

    Bottom line, increased volume at 63 GPM = nice bottom line to add to the results the 28th.

    Legacy store results? That is the wild card. Who knows - anyone making predictions is guessing.

    International sales? Bingo. They, and the outlet store sales, will cover any deficiencies in the Legacy stores in the U.S. They are not going to be that bad in the Lagacy stores there is no recovery on the international and outlet volume. That is my opinion.

    And on the 28th, everyone will know I am right. I know I am.

    Market jittery? Sure is. I won't argue that with short term traders making a few bucks short, long, whatever.

    But over time, COH is a home run long. Has been for me, and I stick with it until Franbkfort leaves. Then I move out because he's one of the best in the business. Period. History and results prove it.

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    • "And on the 28th, everyone will know I am right. I know I am. "

      WHOOPS!

    • take your pissant profits from your bigtime 100 shares short at 35 and go play with your rattle, a**hole

      earnings, current earnings, do matter - it is one of several metrics used to factor value. guidance being another.

      what is guidance? it is a projection. it is a sales projection. got to consider it

      what are earnings? those are results. quantifiable, solid, real $ numbers.

      which holds more muster? anyone with dollars and sense looks at the $ numbers and historical performance.

      historical performance matters just as guidance matters. one can deduce from historical performance COH is legit and a grower.

      and we cannot ever possible know where we are going without knowing where we have been.

      you have been in a plane wreck fr. lt., and your brain is singed

    • again... you are wrong LT. just like usual.

    • Warren Buffett would kick you down a flight of stairs for being stupid. He would never advocate 100% of one's net worth into one equity. Quit talking about Buffett. His stytle and your "style" are polar opposites. He is smart and you are foolish...regardless of how this all works out. Next time, take your 401k to Vegas and put it all on black or red in roulette. It is slightly less than 50% odds...just like your long position going into earnings.

    • OK, so your portfolio is $160K, my net worth is over $1M. Someone else on this board is probably worth 10x me. Who cares, this is about where Coach is going next.

    • 5275 shares pal... how many do you have???

      See that is the difference... one that you ignore. BUT IT IS EVERYTHING!!!!

      I can get rich at very little risk because I paid a reasonable amount...

      Just ask warren buffet. I'm sure he'd agree.

    • That's correct.

      Just so we know where we both stand on this, I've made $9 on the short side and $2 on the way up.

      If this goes to $37, I'd only be $2 up and you, and correct me if I'm wrong, will be $8 up.

      But the fact is today, I'm $10 up are you are even. So it will take a $5 move to get us back to even.

    • General correction for the masses. In your example, the margin impact is 2.7%, not 9%. Makes that piece of your argument stronger, but whatever, I'm for accurate information. And if you want to be like Gnome and call me an idiot for bad math, by all means, try me.

      The bet going into earnings is that any single manager or management team cannot outmanage the greater economy and environment for the consumer. I say no, and am happy to state my short position around $28 and will admit it if I'm wrong and the stock shoots in the 30-35 range after earnings.

      These buy and hold longs.... stop hedging your positions. If the stock tanks, then it's a temporary blip and a wonderful buying opportunity, right? But if the stock rallies, then you crow about how right you were, when the reality is it shouldn't matter if your holding period is years out.

      You all held from 50 to 25 convinced in your position. Suddenly a tick up from 25 to 29 brings all the longs out of the woodwork. Wad is the only long with any reasonable perspective on where this stock has been and where it is today. Ball4 is at least looking at the right things, though differing opinions than my own. Gnome is just off in his own world. Nosh - you're just useless because you don't have anything to offer, you're just a worthless peanut gallery long hanger-on.

      • 2 Replies to ins3archof
      • "
        You all held from 50 to 25 convinced in your position. " huh??????

        that's false. i know i didn't

      • "The bet going into earnings is that any single manager or management team cannot outmanage the greater economy and environment for the consumer. I say no, and am happy to state my short position around $28 and will admit it if I'm wrong and the stock shoots in the 30-35 range after earnings."

        if that was true, then why did the stock pop after the last 2 earnings reports.???

        WHY? Because Lew is so conservative and manages the best retailer in the world... you are playing with fire to be short into earnings...

        ... you see that phat double bottom at 25, right. it took 6 months to build... and it suggests that 37 may be taken out sooner than i had thought.... probably by this xmas.... if not sooner...

        .. yeh,.. i'm in my own world... right...

        because i am long the best of the best. what planet are you from???

    • Nosh...good response. At least you managed to spell everything correctly. That's a first. I was beginning to think you rode the "short bus" to school as a kid.

      Yeah..and let me say it again for those of you that are slow (Gnome, Nosh, and Balless). This quarter MEANS NOTHING. They can beat by a nickel and it won't matter. Write that down. It is the guidance that will crush them or lift them. Nosh...you being the dumbest....I want to make sure you got that. Please have one of the others explain that to you REAL slow.

    • Tell what to apple you f**king idiot? They are net zero since reporting HUGE earnings. What's your point. They aren't up a nickel since reporting. They were $166 going into earnings. Some of you guys are stupid as hell. Balless...I am talking to you, dipsh*t.

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