Anyone else see a doji on the SPY daily (depending on how close to 104.90 we close)? We're right up against the bottom of the triangle/trend line from July 1. Seems like a low risk gap up overnight play into tomorrow.
You're correct with your TA....an early gap up then engulf the prior day candle stick to the downside...! Then thursday you should see a brothers grimm which is a continuance to the downside.....
I just don't see the advantage of shorting here. Honestly, IMO, the time to short was in april. Yes this could break down, but if this support holds this could also take off until the end of the year.
Couple of points... my post was actually in favor of going long SPY overnight for a gap up. A doji could signal a turn in the trend, whether bearish or bullish, and to me it looked like some support exists at current levels. Also, my timeframe is minutes/hours/overnight, so saying the time to short was in April is useless... I've been short in and out (daily/and intraday) over the last 2 weeks and done quite well.
This is a classic BS post. It uses hindsight to change the perception of the current situation in the market. This takes no mental effort. Look back to see a time when the chart was higher...ergo that was when the time to short was. Ah...duh.
It follows up with both an up and down contingent...making the post useless...other than to point to an old spot on the chart.
Dumb post. Useless. Designed to save overnight Asain positions.
This market is in serious trouble. And these boards are as polluted with "bots" as are the markets themselves.
To give you an idea how I play the SPY, I was long SDS overnight, looking for the drop and sold that position in the green in pre-market trading. I then went long SDS near the top of today's range and rode the slide down, covered and went long SSO around 3:30 for an overnight gap-up. Plan is to close out that position tomorrow in pre-market... regardless. If there is any conviction to the move up, I'll look for another long entry, otherwise it's back to the SDS.
So, to be clear, I was looking at the daily chart and a potential doji forming, but with the move up just now, no doji... more likely a spinning top. Having said that, I had already entered my long position as I expect an overnight gap given we're at support and we've had some consolidation down at this level on the SPY and we're still in a range-bound market. My gut and the price action said it goes up, so that's the play I made.
HPQ looks to be forming doji on the daily with 38 as support. Looks to be another play on the gap up for tomorrow.
RIMM I wouldn't go long, but the short play may still be in effect. RIMM is losing market share, so no telling when the downtrend stops, but the candles aren't saying either way.
SNDK is the same analysis of RIMM, still a short in play, but I wouldn't try and fight that trend... a break below 33 and 31.50 and 30 become the next targets.
X is range-bound with a low on July 2 and a high on Aug 19. Couldn't say which direction it goes from here as the candles aren't really saying. Some consolidation happening over the last few days, so maybe up again with a target of 50, but I really don't have any conviction on it.
Please keep in mind that I hold positions anywhere from a few minutes to overnight, but rarely hold anything longer, especially in this market. Good luck and I hope this helps