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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • rightdownthemiddle031 rightdownthemiddle031 Jun 15, 2011 6:03 PM Flag

    OK - I know I was wrong about today

    and now I'm doubting the life of the bull at this point.

    Question for all:

    If you can't have any rules that work because there are trading programs and super computers going in and out of positions in milliseconds, doesn't this put the retail investor at a tremendous disadvantage???

    Isn't this basically a casino to the average trader that over time gets your money? Yeah, I'm still ahead, but it feels like I won't be soon and it sure feels like a casino to me.

    Thinking of checking out into diversified mutual funds now. At least the fund managers are not the averable person in the casino.

    Once enough of us believe in the bear, it will reverse and clobber us all.

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    • Casino, you say? Congratulations, right on! If you're ahead QUIT NOW, you have no chance against the supercomputers that are designed to take money from people like you.

      As with a casino, it lets you win a bit so you feel good, then bet over your head and lose it all.

      I repeat: you have no chance, get out now.

      It's an "I win, you lose" zero-sum game in the market because there is a limited amount of money in it. Unlike with the Fed, the markets don't print more money.

      If it's you against the supercomputer (and the crooks who have insider information before you do), guess who loses.

      • 1 Reply to whybuythisnow
      • To be fair, you're characterizing people who overtrade with too short a timeframe. People who can't tell the difference between signal and noise.

        It isn't a zero sum game.

        Options are a zero sum game.

        But it does look a lot like a casino, and the main reason is the Fed's loose monetary policy that results in too much liquidity looking for a speculation.

    • Well, with all due respect...

      Why is it that one complains at the alleged computer generating "casino" when stocks are falling, but one doesn't make such an assertion when the stocks are racing higher?

      "When every one is bearish it will rip higher"...

      Remember when I was here posting in April that complacency was at multi-year highs as the VIX traded at multi-year lows, and a report indicated the number of bears was a year lows and now was the time to get concerned?

      Remember when I told you to fight the complacency that what we are witnessing is liquidation by big players disguised by endless polyana rhetoric?

      "I know I was wrong on today". With all due respect, if, and I restate that IF, you have any positive gains left, then you have been "correct" to this point, as you have not lost. However, you did lose nearly your entire gain because you did what all the other sheep here do---you failed to listen to those on the other side of your view.

      When the S&P was racing and gapping up and up and up and I had to come here day after day and say SELL IT IS GOING LOWER HARD, you all told me it was "risk-free" and "The fed has my back" and "Buy every dip"...what you should have done was listened to why I was making the claims I was that this market was nearly 100% GUARANTEED to drop. I knew why it was up, the Fed injections, but I also knew those were ending, I knew AND STATED REPEATEDLY that margins had peaked and earnings would be lowered (thus lowering S&P targets, WHICH STILL HASN'T HAPPENED BY ANY FIRMS), I knew mutual funds had invested to the gills their liquidity meaning they did not have the monies to propel it higher, and finally I knew there simply was a tremendous discord between those bullish and those bearish. I stated all this quite clearly on this board---to which I guarantee you 90% of the people have placed me on "block user" cause rather than listen to the facts I put forth, it did not "feel good" to hear it...what felt good was watching their stocks climb day after day after day without quantifying any risk

      What happens? You lose. It really is simple as that. Do NOT chase stocks now, we have seen the yearly highs and we are likely to see a minimal 10% correction from the 136/70 peaks. I think you can play a bounce at 125/50 range with a tight stop, but I think we will go lower to the 1180 range rather quickly. I am not even certain that is the bottom...

      But by all means, don't blame the computers or short sellers for your complacency especially when I was here laying facts out on a silver platter for you illustrating why you should have cashed in your "casino" chips at the height of your market euphoria...

      • 1 Reply to abvincent1
      • well said ab and i agree. sold mutual funds in feb and sat in alot of cash. did some daytrades long and short for scalps. began building shorts late april and was getting killed but built on it anyway. cashed in for some good gains in early may. been doing it for the entire fall. sold my shorts on monday and reloaded several times yesterday. sold today for good $$ but didnt catch the exact bottom. reloaded a few puts at 2pm pop and green on them. may lose it in am but i will build short again. i go out 2-3mos and trade the same options. that helps me with the price range for better entry. trading sept3q. cant do the weeklies too much stress and really is gambling. keep up the good work and good luck!!!

    • >>>>>>If you can't have any rules that work because there are trading programs and super computers going in and out of positions in milliseconds, doesn't this put the retail investor at a tremendous disadvantage???

      It affects intraday traders more than investors.

      Markets have bought intervention for at least 20 years now. Its the key Pavlovian salivation response on Wall Street. We don't even know what it means anymore to operate a free market economy. Its going to get worse before it gets better, just an opinion.

      What's really new and terrifying/exciting is that for the first time since Alan Greenspan came in and corrupted the markets in the late 1980s, our apocalyptic leaders have on their own decided to bet the future of the United States on their political and financial manipulations. It isn't going well. It really is a fair question whether its being done intentionally to depower the US in favor of a new globalist model. That's the odds on bet.

215.57+1.33(+0.62%)Sep 27 8:00 PMEDT