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  • IBDMAN15 IBDMAN15 Jun 2, 2012 11:28 AM Flag

    Poll what % drop next week? Black Monday?

    but it could. Problem is things are so bad, once Romney starts leading in the polls by a wide margin market will likely rally since we get rid of the do nothing socialist administration. Things are getting way worse under obama. Read this from Walker:

    6/1 Jobs Hit the Iceberg Today: NFP 69,000

    The Economy is a Train Wreck

    The U.S. recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009, making the 18-month slump the longest since the Great Depression, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research back in in 2010. That's a bunch of poppycock!

    GDP is being artificially propped up by US government borrowing and printing, which is creating an illusion of growth when there is none. Clearly GDP is trending down. The GDP last year shrunk to 1.7% annually from 3.0% in 2010, and it is likely to come in lower this year, with the bleak 2nd revision that we got on May 31st. It is not just the US debt choking the life out of the economy, it is the absence of growth, which is clearly reflected in the GDP.

    This whole jobless recovery is nothing more than a mirage, a sham! Job growth is declining not rising. Housing prices continue to be in a free fall. GDP is down. Consumer Confidence has fallen off a cliff.

    Supposedly the stimulus was to fix the economy and not allow the unemployment rate to rise above 8%. Well the stimulus was signed into law in February 2009, the same month the unemployment rate first moved above 8%, and it hasn't dropped below 8% in 40 months. The unemployment rate as been above 8% for almost 3 1/2 years.

    It came as no surprise to me when the latest job numbers showed the unemployment rate actually went UP from 8.1% to 8.2%. Feeble hiring by U.S. employers in May sent markets plummeting and dimmed the already-cloudy outlook for an economy that appears to be following Europe and Asia into a slowdown.

    If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when before the financial crisis ~ 65.7% then vs. 63.8 % today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9 %.

    Employers added a seasonally adjusted 69,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase in a year, and estimates for the two previous months were lowered. In April, the NFP were previously reported as 115,000 jobs; it was really 77,000. So April was revised downward and worse than expected. And March, 11,000 fewer jobs in March created; only 143,000 there. So you've got three months of less job creation than prevously thought. Notice that the weekly intial claims continue to be revised up every week, while the net jobs being created each month is being revised down each month.

    Ed Morrissey points out:

    "The U-6 figure, which comprises all unemployed and marginally attached workers, rose from 14.5% to 14.8%. The only really positive news was a fairly significant drop in the number of people not in the labor force, which went from 88.419 million to 87.958 million, a difference of 461,000 workers. However, the increase in underutilization tempers that improvement quite a bit."

    Today's employment numbers caught many long term bulls by surprise, with their rosy projects of a recovery that never came. There is no recovery, there is not one economic metric that we can point to that shows that the economy is on the mend.

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