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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • kone2410 kone2410 Jun 5, 2012 8:34 AM Flag

    Crash warning, here is why and good indicator

    Yesterday, futures fell 50 points on Dow when market closed and are trading actually DOWN right now about 40. Most stocks are DOWN in pre-market while quotes for futures are UP. This is what is called a black swan indicator. Which we have not seen since '09. YES, this was happening then as I was trading options and did see this phenomenon somewhat. But the site that follow bs indictors went OFF yesterday in a big way. This means the selloff in asset classes has started. The bubbles in them have started to unwind, and in afternoon trading, you will see massive sales. This is why the support in the futures markets. Witness -110 on dow futures reversal on sunday to positive for the day yesterday. This is to provide liquidity for the sales. High yield corporate debt and junk bonds are coming apart. Many think that a qe3 will drive markets HIGHER. But this will be to keep markets from falling fast, not to move them up:

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    • xtgeminiman Jun 5, 2012 9:22 AM Flag

      Per the Skew Index, there's very little probability of a big move down right now. If you had followed it last June when the Vix was still low, you would've gotten out.

      Current quote is 116 and change.

      • 1 Reply to xtgeminiman
      • Despite a "hue and cry of financial markets," the Federal Reserve should refrain from further easing, said Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher Tuesday. In a speech in St. Andrews, Scotland, Fisher questioned whether more quantitative easing would do any good. Businesses are more concerned with the lack of direction for the future of the federal government's tax and spending policy. "If job-creating businesses have no idea what their taxes will be, are clueless about how federal spending will impact their customers or their own businesses and cannot budget personnel costs... how could additional monetary policy be stimulative?" he asked. More easing would be "a form of piling on the already enormous uncertainty and angst that businesses face with our reckless fiscal policy," Fisher said.

    • There won't be any further Federal Reserve accommodation.

      Doesn't do any good other than to raise interest rates and is nothing more than pushing on a string-not enough qualified borrowers out there for those additional reserves.

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