there is still that monster SPY block of way out of the money puts lurking in the shadows. while small fries are looking one way the block of monster size awaits a June july surprise. Do you really think you know more then the desk that placed that whopper. One of the biggest way out of the money put purchases ever. That size represents conviction not guesses. the open interest exploded with one giant trade placed all at once.
You are assuming they were a buyer. What if they were a seller? The point is, you know didly squat because you dont even know if the trade was initiated by a buy or a sell. Furthermore, not only does big money lose often, you dont even know if the trade was executed both ways already and no longer exists. I suggest you look at open interest. And even that means nothing. If you cant see the markets are going higher in the near term, you need help.