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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • thewatcher3434 thewatcher3434 Jan 2, 2013 6:57 PM Flag

    Ibdman and other board fear pumpers got blasted today+ New indicators coming soon!

    You had many bears bragging about their long vxx calls and short spy put positions. Lets analyze them briefly.

    ATM Vxx calls: Had you took this trade at the close of business monday and covered at the open, you lost an average of 40%. OTM did even worse, with losses in excess of 70%. If you took the common shares, you lost 9%. If you held all day or added, congratulations, you successfully destroyed your account.

    ATM SPY Puts. Another 40% losing trade at the open. OTM puts did a lot worse, giving back an average of 55-85% depending on your strike price.

    I have learned a few things about this message board since I started following it 10 days ago. Aside from some (not all) of the most deeply disturbed, mentally incompetent individuals I have ever encountered on the web, the ones who are the most deeply disturbed are some of the finest contrarian indicators out there.

    I am in the process of developing indicators based on sentiment gauged from this message board. Thanks to NycTom explaining to me what the word "troll" means (as I am retired and 67 years old and not familiar with todays lingo) I have labeled this indicator "the trollodex"

    This new indicator, which should be finished coding next week, will have start with a neutral index value of 50. It will scan the posts and keywords of the user id's on this board who I deem to be the most mentally unstable and idiotic, and gauge their sentiment, profanity in posts, etc. When the index registers 70+, this will indicate the trolls are out in full force, and seeing how trolls are mostly bearish, you would buy the market. If the index registers below 40, they are bullish, you then short the market. You simply go contrarian to certain posters on this board. Seeing how some of the posters on here are retail, so called "political guru's" and people who have absolutely no clue on financial markets, developing these indicators could be a treasure trove of info for turning a useless message board into a way to make money.

    In addition, I am also working on an IBDMAN indicator, as this poster seems to be the most clueless of them all. While he is not rude by any means, he has absolutely no concept of the market. This indicator will scan ibdman posts and do the exact opposite of whatever he says.

    Next month, I will provide actual rates of return based on these indicators. Anyone using esignal can feel free to email me, and once I have the algo code finished, I will provide a link to add the indicator to esignal at no charge and you are free to use the trollodex just like you would use rsi, macd, etc.

    I am thinking of these indicators as another arrow in my old quiver. It cannot hurt to have. While I obviously would not base my trades strictly off of this, I am sure it will help greatly to see what the "trolls" take on the market is.

    God Speed


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