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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • darwins_assistant darwins_assistant Feb 16, 2013 9:41 AM Flag

    The meaning of seasonality

    There are three forces which can drive stock prices (in aggregate, not individual company prices).
    (1) Economic Fundamentals (employment, credit growth, business margins)
    (2) Wealth Management (investors putting money to work somewhere, anywhere sometimes)
    (3) Government Intervention Stimulus (fiscal deficits, Fed monetary policy, tax cuts)

    In the simplest model, economic fundamentals have a business cycle centered around inventory and credit. Wealth management makes allocation decisions around calendars because of performance bonus concerns.
    Government stimulus is normally organized around political cycles (elections). In not normal times, like the last 10 years, stimulus intervention is almost a constant.

    Since markets discount future earnings, stocks rise from November to April based on wealth management reallocations to speculations on next years earnings. Then by mid year, economic fundamentals start to dominate as speculations are weighed and measured, frequently giving summer and early fall corrections. That's the basic interplay by the calendar and the reason why News isn't the main factor driving stock prices.

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