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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • kibblesmomma kibblesmomma Apr 11, 2013 7:01 PM Flag

    a quick lesson on "all time highs" and why it can go much higher

    It's actually quite simple, take all your fundamental and technical rules and put em aside for a minute

    Always remember this: No long is losing at all time highs. None. as such, they have no primary reason to sell. They can just move up their stops, be them mental stops or automated stops and relax. Longs have no tension being in a winning position with no obvious resistance to worry about.

    So, for the many many people here who are banging their heads against the wall saying "how can this still be going up?" It's easy. No one is in a losing position. The sellers are gone. The reason to sell is gone. They are sitting back and watching the show. This is why even the magical son of mine, Kibbles couldnt make any money today shorting.

    Look at a volume by price graph and notice all the volume is way below the current area.

    What will it take for this to crack? An event most likely. Otherwise we could easily drift along here. Most major tops take months and months to form before the market resets with a true bear market.

    So, those who are in shock at this market are simply inexperienced. Tops take a long time to form before they bust, and bottoms happen infinitely faster.

    The smart ones ride the trend up until it ends, no matter how absurd it may be, stop trying to guess when it will end. Keep buying until it doesnt work. The long term trend in the market is always up, so shorting is always the tougher of the two directions to get correct.

    If you can recall the internet bubble, that was overbought a good three years before the March 2000 peak but the long term trend is up and you ride it until it stops.

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