It's actually quite simple, take all your fundamental and technical rules and put em aside for a minute
Always remember this: No long is losing at all time highs. None. as such, they have no primary reason to sell. They can just move up their stops, be them mental stops or automated stops and relax. Longs have no tension being in a winning position with no obvious resistance to worry about.
So, for the many many people here who are banging their heads against the wall saying "how can this still be going up?" It's easy. No one is in a losing position. The sellers are gone. The reason to sell is gone. They are sitting back and watching the show. This is why even the magical son of mine, Kibbles couldnt make any money today shorting.
Look at a volume by price graph and notice all the volume is way below the current area.
What will it take for this to crack? An event most likely. Otherwise we could easily drift along here. Most major tops take months and months to form before the market resets with a true bear market.
So, those who are in shock at this market are simply inexperienced. Tops take a long time to form before they bust, and bottoms happen infinitely faster.
The smart ones ride the trend up until it ends, no matter how absurd it may be, stop trying to guess when it will end. Keep buying until it doesnt work. The long term trend in the market is always up, so shorting is always the tougher of the two directions to get correct.
If you can recall the internet bubble, that was overbought a good three years before the March 2000 peak but the long term trend is up and you ride it until it stops.
how 14 people gave this a thumbs down show that 14 people just wanna fight than learn
this post is by far the most informative one every posted here in years.
if the shorts here had read it and paid attention, they might have saved their entire accounts over the past 12 months
it all made sense if you had an open mind and didn't just want to fight like children
Quite simply, the greatest post ever on this board. I called the market staying up here and going higher back in APRIL!!!!! April 11th to be exact.
HALF A YEAR AGO!
NO ONE can top this for a real-time call.
who told you here 6 months ago that we might be meandering at all time highs for months to come?
me, right here.
Posted in real time.
While my son guffawed and sneered all posted here to see
Who told those amazed at the Spring run up that everything is different at all time highs?
posted and linked back to
unlike my son
in light of the Bernanke comments today, this post just keeps looking more and more like one of the greatest, most informative, Jedi-like foresight, . . . oh I could go on, but the post speaks for itself.
THREE MONTHS AGO I said the market could stay up here for a long long time.
THREE. MONTHS. AGO.
I did this since I wanted to help the newbies who kept shorting over and over and being floored by the lack of a market break/crash.
Shorting is infinitely tougher than going long.
best of luck to all!
not in 2000-2003 or 2007-2009. The shorts will have their day. Markets will just crash one day and never look back to where they were. NDQ hit 5000 in march 2000 and was 3500 in april 2000! R2K hit new high in sept 2008 and was at 6 year low in Nov 2008. The reversal could sinply occur in futures tonight when the rest of the world figures out how bad the FED is screwing them. SPX could open under 1600 in the am although 1663 now. anything is possible.
care to explain?
I posted to a board that for months had nothing but shocked and angry shorts that this top could take months to form, I explain why, in great detail, and everything I wrote has held up or 3 months, and you say I'm "full of it"?
please o wise one, tell me what I said that aint absolutely true and perhaps the greatest post this board has ever seen?
or maybe you're just a schmuck who doesnt know the difference between a vertical call spread and a horizontal put spread much less anything else