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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • silversplode silversplode May 5, 2013 7:27 PM Flag

    It's 1995

    Late 1995, and SPY is at 60.00 +, a new lifetime high.

    Some people are saying, "This thing is going to crash! Don't buy the high! Only a fool would buy here!" etc. kind of like alot of stuff we see now.

    U.S. had just worked it's way out of a recession, and many felt we were still in recession. many were still bearish.

    Others said, "hey, things ARE getting better, slowly but surely....and we just broke out on the upside!"

    Which ones ended up winning?

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    • Nice analogy EXCEPT there's three things you're leaving out..

      The Fed hadn't spent 4 trillion dollars between 1961 and 1965 to GET it to 60.0.. AND

      Our Gov't hadn't spent like drunken sailors to create a landscape of part-time jobs and a 105% Debt to Gdp ratio...

      And interest rates were just a BIT higher than today

      Guess you just forgot to mention those..

      • 1 Reply to golfrattt2000
      • Spent like drunken sailors WE DID!

        Under Reagan and Bush (who both raised taxes AND spending) the national deficit was the bears big argument of the day. It's all I ever heard about back then.

        Interest rates were finally lowered about the time of the Gulf War (in which we kicked #$%$ quickly-yeah U.S.A.) and before bears knew what hit them, we were in the greatest time of peace and prosperity ever.

        Not saying it will definitely happen again, just saying it could and hope it does.

    • globull May 5, 2013 7:52 PM Flag

      Great story! I have 2 for you!

      In 1999 and 2007 the market reached new all time highs 1580 and 1590 respectively. The people calling to sell were openly mocked and laughed at on television in public. Unemployment was near its lowest, the economy was expanding and the calls for s&p 2000 were rampant. Unfortunately the buyers or holders at these levels have yet to make a gain in the 6-14 years since. History is littered with the tombstones of buyers/holders at this level.

      And btw, eveyone agrees with YOU though. Look at the vix, near historical lows. You might think there are alot of bears out there but there are not. Only on paper. In the real market there are nothing but greed crazed bulls.

      Good luck holdin out for the last dollar though.

      • 1 Reply to globull
      • globull, I'll give you credit, everything you said is factual.

        I was bearish in 1999, (early), 2006 (early), 2011 (nailed it on the debt ceiling sell off, gave up some gains by staying short a tad too long).

        Yeah, if I'm wrong, I'll admit it and change course. Definitely not "all in" at this level. But in since Thursday last week.

        Biggest bets going now, I like silver and gold rebound and going with EGO and SLW. No one likes the miners right now.

    • I'm not kidding man I think the SPY will be over 1000 in a few years. Having said that, SPY has less than tripled in 18 years. If you add in dividends, it has not even doubled twice. We need to make up for lost time now and really go to the moon.

      The one caveat is we seem to have entered a new era of booms and busts with epic crashes every few years. It certainly could happen again and if it did, things are so leveraged that the Dow could drop 90% in a year. It's not likely though, far more likely is Dow to 1 million in 15 year or so.

      • 1 Reply to bobwins_o_phile
      • You're not far fetched at all.

        I've been studying moves for over 20 years now.

        Long term moves. Short term moves. Intraday, weekly, monthly, hourly an by the minute moves.

        On the long term charts, breakouts like this can rocket up for 10 or 20 years. It's been a big fat channel since 1999. And it seems we have a break out here.

        More breathing room would be nice, but what's changed since Friday?

        Will take a Lehman type event to crash it, which would probably come after a really bad earnings season come July (entirely possible).

        If there is a crash, more likely this fall, and it would most likely be pre-ceded by a very bad earnings season, like I said, in July.

        But I do believe things are getting better.

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