At the Jeffries consumer stock conference today, a mention was made that Qdoba could have in excess of 2,000 locations in the future. The analogy with Chipotle is compelling, and some have speculated that Qdoba could stand on its own as a public company commanding a 35X price earnings ratio. The key here is that they would have a simultaneous IPO if there was a spinoff which, just like Chipotle, would generate a debt free balance sheet and plenty of capital to expand aggressively. Hence one dares not trifle with this dynamite situation given that a spinoff of Qdoba would be a huge and instantaneous plus for JACK holders. This is why the stock just is not going down much from here. Ignore the know-nothings on this board who have been so wrong on JACK when commenting it would crack 20.00. Instead it is up over 12% since then and in a defensive stock market. Whereas oil is cracking on the downside and should tank further. Imagine those who took the advice to buy oil at the top. What a disaster if they involved in the futures market. It is disgraceful that anyone would get on this board and encourage someone to gamble on the oil futures market. For the rest of us, the sane ones, keep the faith on JACK. It is up ten days straight now and a real winner. I should think $25. is a realistic target price looking to the end of this year.
Big J in L.A. (retired security analyst, The Foristall Co., members Los Angeles Society of Security Analysts. I covered the lodging/hotel, gaming, and restaurant industries for 14 years)
May not make $25 by year-end but JACK is actually acting very well. Seems to be a lot of support around 19.50-20.00. The QSR stocks are acting pretty well (lead by MCD) and the same store comps (the key indicator) are generally good. If the market ever catches on to Qdoba (and if the management ever figures out how to monetize it), this stock has many catalysts that can make it work. It'll take a decent macro environment but the stock is still a BUY.