Don't know...hence the reason all pharmas are trading at deep discounts. SNY actually isn't as cheap as some others so it probably can go lower.
Answer these questions and if you can't you need to start thinking. This is what is being priced in... -Do you know what the ACTUAL profits impact of US regulated Obama plan (significant upside if plan gets overturned and thrown away in next election/presidential cycle) will be on SNY profits? -Austerity in EU countries that all provide public health care. Are there going to be cuts made as to what is paid for and where SNY's drugs fit? -Patent expirations over the next 5 years for drug manufacturers are going to be legion. Plavix already has had its generics experience and it hammered the sales. -Pipeline, just because you see lots of compounds doesn't mean any will make it to market then have any uptake. SNY has many compounds but many are SMALLER in expected market size...no BLOCKBUSTERS. Plus these products will be getting released into a market with many uncertainties (see above). -Other pharmas trading at better valuations without the overhang of European issues.
You see, it really isn't as cut and dry as you think, besides I can buy HIGH GRADE corporate paper with better yields and simply hold to maturity. You see, pharma equity appreciation is decelerating and must be re-priced. So SNY can go lower and to simply buy out of seeking yield -- ever heard of "value trap"?
MANY A FORTUNE HAS BEEN LOST AT THE HANDS OF YIELD SEEKING.