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CenturyLink, Inc. Message Board

  • doonboggle doonboggle Feb 17, 2011 4:28 PM Flag

    What's going on with this stock?

    Have been watching it now for the last week, for possible divy income, and it is down at 6% in that time. What's going on ... is it concern over the massive insider sales in December?

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    • You do not have to worry about me. This was one bad trade and is now turning into a very good one. This is not the only stock I trade, just one I wish I wish I hadn't. Then again it looks like my puts will payoff again today.

      Now, I don't know what you are on about with regard to discussion of "programmed men". It has nothing to do with me.

      I usually don't stay on boards where attacks are present. In your case you are presumptutous and no very little about what I am trading or my profits or losses. I just happen to be very focused on CTL, because it is the first time that I have ever seen a a merger like this. Yes, my eyes were opened, and I am playing it down.

      I don't understand anybody who uses a board to act out their anger. When my pupose is done, I won't stay on this board.

    • Ben-- I like your posts on here. Keep it up.

    • Confusion? Things are usu. only simple if you don't look/think very hard.

    • No value added by that statement. I was answering someone's question, otherwise, I wouldn't have said anything at all. What you can't admit failures? Well, let's start with successes. I simply recouped money on puts. I hope you did something economically productive today.

    • Gee, could ben and investor be the same person?

    • Wow! Didn't realize I was gong to raise such a ruckus with my simple question.
      But do appreciate the input comments.

      Tells me, as a possible buyer, to back off of this one; too much confusion.

    • CTL will nosedive if management decides to cut the divvy.

      Does cash flow cover the divvy? Can they pay out this much divvy and service the debt at the same time?

      Something got to give.

      I was surprised at the stock runup from pre-merger to high 45+; maybe reality sets in.

      Will revisit CTL if it can maintain 38.

    • Nothing is going on. Earnings were slightly missed and the ex dividend date was yesterday. Was to be expected but appears to be consolidating and will probably be back above 45 in a few weeks. This is a great entry point after the pullback. Where else are you going to find a solid company like CTL that pays this dividend?

      • 1 Reply to rpoole5552
      • What is going is the realization of the fact that a merger with a very weak cmopany is occuring. Qwest is a large company and larger than CTL in terms of debt. Debt for CTL will rise from $10B to $30B, because Qwest has $20B in debt and a negative networth. Mr. Rpoole I am sorry for continuing to post, but someone needs to pay attention to this thing.

        Qwest reported a loss on $10B+ of earnings. Remember in terms of debt, 2/3rd of the debt will be Qwests and Qwest is losing money and has a negative networth. Effectively, the valuation of CTL is going to be brought in the near term beacuse of the massive debt load.

        The professional investor, fund manager, etc. knows that this will adjust down in the near term until we start to understand how the integrated company will look. What will be the balance sheet, income statement and cash flow? I think for the next report 6/30/10, it will be murky and the outlook will be questionable.

        The thing missing from this which cuts to managements creditaility is a realistic debt repayment plan. Remember, CTL said they are going to be spending more on network costs, but you also have to consider network intergration costs. In other words, in the near term, the infrastructure will cost more, not less. They have spend money to realise the efficiencies from the network. They also have to layoff people, etc.

        So, let's just say there should be soon a rash of downgrades to follow S&P's downgrade and the worse down grade might well be a credit downgrade.

        Sell this dog now and then wait for the integration benefits to be realised. Sell now, buy WIN or something else, even FTR, and then buy CTL back in July.

        The valuation has to drop.

27.42-0.19(-0.69%)Sep 23 4:00 PMEDT