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CenturyLink, Inc. Message Board

  • joetong419 joetong419 Feb 24, 2011 10:22 AM Flag

    where's the bottom support?

    All of a sudden charming CTL rise has fallen from grace.

    Any clue for bottom support? Want to buy, but not until price settles down.

    I'm praying for 38.00.

    There's a rurual telecom earnings for companies all lower than expected. Then this merger might be a challenge.


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    • For this stock to have a value, it first has to fall into the abyss of infinite leverage. The balance sheet will be extremely poor, as I have written many times. I combined the two companies and there is no way out of this whole but to use all of the cash flow they have to repay debt and pay for network integration, staff layoffs, and new network build. I just don't see any room for a divdiend, and I am so suprised the analyst community just sits back without a clue. It is a sell rating, and I appreciate what you posted. Everyone has a sell number, but not a buy number. The impression is it might be time now. I doubt it. IT will fall when the first analyst gavel hits.

    • Data provided ok, but also look at the stock price and graph as indication something is not kosher here.

      Because CTL stock price went 46+ to 40 since 1/3/11, time to be cautious.

      Will you buy more shares if CTL went to 38, then 35?

      Everyone also has a target sell price, unless, they'll hold forever.

      The merger of CTL and Q will be a challenge; to grow the company through landline when cell phones is the new tech will not be easy!


    • Say what...????? Here is CTL's latest quarterly news.

      Added nearly 29,000 high-speed Internet customers during the quarter and ended 2010 with 2,394,000 high-speed Internet customers.

      Generated free cash flow (as defined in the attached financial schedules) of $342 million in fourth quarter
      2010, excluding nonrecurring items of $7.1 million and $9.1 million of acquisition related capital expenditures.

      Achieved approximately $85 million in synergies from the Embarq acquisition during fourth quarter 2010and ended 2010 with estimated annual run rate synergies of more than $340 million.

      4th quarter cash flow was only down $79 million - mainly affected by merger with Quest.

      Looks good to me - I don't see anything that would stop me from buying more.

    • As a comparable, WIN was up 1.56% but it is going toward ex-dividend. After ex-dividend, WIN will drop hard to something like $10. Why is CTL not performing? Because there are very serious questions over the potential profitabiliy of the combined enterprise (CTL and Qwest) on the back of a very week balance sheet. I wouldn't buy it until October after two quarters of combined results. There are better things to buy, so why stay with this one when all you have are questions. There is also a risk of downgrade(s). If you go in, wait till it three or four positive upward days.

    • CTL has gone up, but the gains aren't as big as in the past, especially on a rebound day. Should have been up from 0.60 - 0.90, but only about 0.25 compared to rest of market.

      That's why, I'll wait for conviction before going back in 100%.

    • One day doesn't make a trend and the day is not over. This stock is not going up. There is no reason for it to go up.

    • CenturyLink, Inc. (CTL): Telecom Services Industry. Market cap of $12.15B. RSI(14) at 26.06. BVPS at $31.91, diluted EPS at $3.13. Graham number = sqrt(22.5 x $31.91 x $3.13) = $63.25. Current price at $40.05 (implies a potential upside of 36.68%). Short float at 9.16%, which implies a short ratio of 6.45 days. The stock has gained 24.92% over the last year.

    • $38......???? I don't think so. Maybe $39.40 is good for you if it goes that low. CTL is currently just below its 200 MA, it won't stay there for long so if your joining the rest of us, you should be coming aboard now. I sincerely doubt that it goes below $39.50, but that is only MHO.

27.31-0.11(-0.40%)Sep 26 4:02 PMEDT