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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • notsoconfused notsoconfused May 7, 2006 7:53 PM Flag

    AVI Casino - place your FINAL BETS

    guestimates for LOG reduction in HCV viral titer. Please copy the list and add your name and the estimate (or correction to your previous estimate) if you want to participate.

    ==========================================
    I'm slightly lowering my guestimate, which i still consider optimistic (see posts 121912 & 91992 ). Recent article in Liver Transplant puts the population of HCV nonhepatic sources up to ~ 4% of the total viral production (these cells are not 'leaky' like hepatocytes, i.e. unlikely to get penetrated by PMO).

    http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/112391224/ABSTRACT?CRETRY=1&
    SRETRY=0


    IMHO, plenty of wishful thinking and hype on this board but very little solid science. Worse, these few who understand the underlying biology are either doing poorly in mathematics or didn't bother to check the numbers. In my experience with speculative biotechs there is -- almost inevitably -- a stiff punishment for ignorance:) Anyhow, good luck!

    ============================================

    exon_skipper: Undetectable (ie.meant PERFECT)
    Cloque: Undetectable
    kajz777: 7.77 log reduction
    mjrruby20000: 6log10 reduction
    bionerd: (see post 125595) 4-5 log reduction
    myboys2: 4.2log10 reduction
    vskomarovsky 4.1 log
    avi_killsh5n1: 4.0 log10 reduction
    copphiggins 3.85 announce 4/12
    Rwcscott: 3.8 Log Reduction, ann. 4/11/06
    ermdme 3.77 log 10 reduction
    southcascade 3.7 log
    webofficenow: 3.5 log reduction
    belowthefray: 3.4 (to the moon, Alice
    redplate 3.3 log
    InoKidding 3.267 log reduction
    US2China2 3.2^10
    bbrruubbrroo 3.2*LOG
    alexranaldi 3.14159 log reduction
    csr1223: 3.12*Log reduction
    steven_seagal_vphm: 3.1* LOG reduction.
    prov719 >3.0 log
    bionerd: see post # 104496 (around 3 LOG)
    teachersr0ck: 3.0 LOG red. announced 4/7/06
    skeptical_guy: 3.0 Log reduction, announce 4/29
    timozark: 2.95 log
    fiveburkesonly 2.8 Log reduction.
    usagary1: 2.68*LOG reduction.
    dnn15905: 2.63*LOG reduction.
    alexanova7: 2.58*LOG reduction
    powerfultoad 2.5 log
    teebear00: 2.4*LOG reduction.
    jdb_rainman:2.4log reduction
    s2c_1999: 2.2 Log reduction
    Klaus: 1.9*LOG reduction
    notsoconfused: 0.7-1.7 LOG reduction (2x150 mg cohort)
    ngrunes: < 1 log10 median reduction

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    • NSC,

      Happy to help. I agree, following the smart posters is a worthwhile pursuit. I noticed you have turned up some good info. I'll be keeping my eye on Sangamo and your posts.

      GL

    • thanks a lot that was very useful info !

      i keep digging there -- amazing how much good stuff one can learn and how much time one can save following closely what the smart posters had uncovered already.

      Cheers!

    • A long time ago stuv_xyz had interesting takes on SGMO. But those could be outdated if they're even still available to read.

      Bordmup might have had a few posts. Also very dated.

      There could be another more current poster with good contributions, but hard to find/remember with all the noise. I must admit, the people who work to make the board unreadable have done a good job over there. Try asking dressman about any other current posters as he has probably read more recent posts and might remember better.

      GL

    • a quick question -- any other poster on SGMO board worth reading besides dressman ?

    • i was away till yestarday and still haven't had a chance to read the posts on this (very prolific:) board, nor to examine AVI HCV data in detail -- will try to do that in the following days.

      yep, thanks, i've realized that "fancy" is an interesting character.

      Cheers!

    • notsoconfused,

      Intersting you said that. I've been following SGMO for nearly 3 years. I have traded it a few times. And do plan to buy a chunk in the future. Dressman is a good read. Beware of fancy and his crew of 50 aliases.

      Do you have any new thoughts on AVII?

    • "Another reason to take my profits at the time was that i had found a similar, but possibly more promising biotech stock.

      What stock? "


      SGMO is my best bet at present (definitely not a stock for people who are risk averse -- moreover, waiting a bit till the biotech selling subsides might be a clever move.)

    • Mensch from the old world know. :-)

    • I agree. PR is the second (after the science) catalyst to trigger market's reaction. To my mind comes the sign that one great Ukranian writer had in front of her, when she, on the turn of XIX and XX centuries in Cairo, moneyless and sick with tuberculosis, was trying to survive. The sign read: " I translate from any language to any language". She was a polyglot. AVI PR should be as much universal,- something like - "HEALING ANY DESEASE".

    • I said it before. AVI could have chosen the road that is easier travelled and concentrated on H5N1 trials. They chose the road most arduous. Why?

      They know they can lick it! They are not going to the conference to show sad faces or questionable results. They are amongst peers, the very people who understand the arcane language and who live in the labs.

      I would like to see good PR now.

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