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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • drdonno drdonno Jun 7, 2013 10:55 PM Flag

    so what's going to happen after?

    everyone is so atwitter about FDA giving approval on AA filing, but what happens after that?

    how does that translate to $60+ pps? they still have to make the drug in enough quantity to satisfy patient needs. are they ready? can they do it? when will patients get their eteplirsen?

    I think there is a huge amount of emotion tied to this drug for the boys afflicted, and rightfully so, but how does that translate into sustainable high pps?

    a rational explanation would be appreciated.


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    • Remember, SRPT has additional exon-skipping targets in their quiver. Considering the nature of markets are forward looking, with implied / assumed future revenue streams. Which is why $60 pps is probably on the very conservative side. I'm thinking 5 years down the road and easily between $125-150, with a couple more exon skipping applications validated / approved. Assuming that a buyout does not happen in the interim, which is highly speculated on, for good reason.

      With or without AA, the share price / take-out value will be much higher in two years. The shorts are only betting on failed AA, but their thesis is that past FDA practice will be maintained, with small cohort trials. This one, however, will be the exception to the rule, and short covering will easily push the pps to $75 when the announcement for AA is made, followed by a pull-back when short covering is exhausted. GLTA

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Sales, e.g. 10,000 boys with DMD born every year, assuming an initial base of 10,000 patients and
      E. supports longevity:
      Year 1: 10,000
      Year 2: 10,000 plus Year 1 survivors for 20,000 patients
      Year 3: 10,000 plus Year 1 and Year 2 survivors for 30,000 patients
      Do you see the pattern? {smile}

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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