Shares are currently trading about $2 higher than the merger value, suggesting that the CVR's that will fetch $3 upon approval have a current implied value of $2 or so. Appears the market is strongly suggesting approval, but I am curious to hear other's take on this, if I'm missing something, etc... Thanks in advance guys/gals.
That is correct. The market is pricing in right now at least a $2 CVR value. Approval is 90% certain based on company merger agreement thus that is most likely reflected in current share price. It will be interesting to see what the CVR's trade at post merger and post FDA approval. I have assigned a $1 value for the milestone CVR's worth $3. The market may have a different idea. I expect this to trade over $9 and as high as $9.50 prior to merger as we get closer. Vote is February 26 and closing could be as soon as a week later.
Uni - You are the man. Thanks for your thoughts and information. It hs been interesting/fun to watch the shares ever-so-slowly drift 20-25% higher since the merger announcement. Good things come to those who wait it appears.