they are not going to allow it. They will crash the refiners before xmas. I could be wrong, however I do not believe so. We will see monday, if VLo skips back to $44 or $45 I have to say it is not going to happen. The spread does not warrant the rise in price so far for VLO. Out of all the refiners VLo was practically the only one that beat the estimate of .58 Now a year ago they made over $2 bills. Nothing like lowering the bar a bit.
You could be right AH. This crew got gang tackled when I said VLO goes to $32 and it did. I have to go with the 50000 short contracts on this ah, just to much money. The other indication to me was 12 million shares traded and the stock moved a dollar hahahaha, thats all short money stacking against VLO. Remember 3 days to settle the trade.......and you know how they like to have you all in at the top.
When VLO hit $58 they were making $10 a share, Now it is $3. At $10 a share they traded at a PE of 5 now they trade at a PE of 16. I know you see the light in the tunnel and I know you know it is a train.
The majority of the stocks did not go up Friday, the majority went down. VLO was a minority.
Yahoo says VLO has a 10.8 PE. Thats 48/4.44. So, I think VLO with a 16 PE can get to $80. With the LP value this stock should hit $60 in 2-3months. So it looks like you are leaving a lot of money on the table. Are you sure your not short?
IDP, very short, very short term thinking. If it was gonna tank it should have already. I admit there is a battle going on in VLO and inj the refiners as there are hitting peaks now from lows in early October. Who do you think has won all year looking at the whole year, the longs in this market or the shorts? I don't think there is any question there. LR
First, let me be clear. I am out of the market and I had my funds wired to me, they will arrive Monday. Second, looking at the market, the volume is down 30 to 40%. We have a exit of cash from the market. The volume difference occured 8 weeks ago and it is getting worse, I track the buying and the selling of all stocks. I also look at options as well as trend analysis, charts , block buying. Basically everything that can be looked at. My concern this second half of the year is how much are we willing to pay for earnings? The amount we over pay indicates the size of the bubble. Based on my calcualtions this market is 2/3 over bought. I also look at companies in the same industries how they are reporting. I see disparities. Lowes vs Home Depot is a prime example. I go into Lowes and the store is packed, I go into Home Depot and not so much yet Home Depot says they are reporting better earnings. I look at the refiners, all of them had miserable earnings and I mean all of them. Even though they said VLO beat earnings last quarter they are down 75% from this quarter last year. I look at the unemployment reoport and they just stopped counting people. I look at housing and they say permits jumped 11% yet the home builders are not doing well. I look at new mortgages applications and there is none but home building permits are up 11%. I look at our $20 trillion dollar debt. I look at the derivative market with the banks and I see $200 trillion problems. None of this is good and we are very close to a major down draft in the market.