It is hard to say but let's do our best guess... Valero is reported to get 20-25% of this line of heavy sour crude. So lets just say it gets 200,000 a barrel of crude of heavy sour crude from the Keystone XL north. Let's say Valero saves $7 a barrel on taking the Canadian heavy crude oil off the Keystone and let's say having the line there puts pressure on the imported Maya heavy crude driving its price down to compete with the Canadian heavy of say $3.00 a barrel. (note: I am putting a $4 discount per barrel of the Canadian heavy as that crude is logistically strained and therefore sells at a discount to Maya and heavy other heavier imported crudes).
Valero processed 500,000 of heavy sour crude in the latest quarter. So 200,000 barrels per day at $7 per barrel saving or $511,000,000 per year and 300,000 of heavy sour crude at a $3 savings or $328,500,00 per year or total of $839,000,000 per year. Take 35% out for taxes and you get $545,75,000 in extra profits or about an additional $1.00 per share in earnings per year. Multiply that by a 10 PE and you get an additional $10.00 in stock value for Valero.
This computation if very difficult... because as the refiners process less sweet crude and more heavy crude, this puts pressure on the sweet crude prices which would benefit Valero as well as they processed over 1,000,000 barrels a day of sweet crude.
It is very beneficial to Valero and it is fair to say the pipeline biggest benefactor would be Valero as they have 5 cokers on the Gulf Coast that enable them to process this difficult heavy sour crude.
Good news John.... thanks...... Should be approved for the start of construction in January 2017.
Nice to see Washington fast track a shovel ready project that will create 10000 high paying jobs.
The administration is finally getting serious .
"The Presidential Permit review process now focuses on whether the proposed Project serves the national interest, which involves consideration of many factors including: energy security; environmental, cultural, and economic impacts; foreign policy; and compliance with relevant federal regulations and issues. During this time, the Department will consult with, at least, the eight agencies identified in Executive Order 13337: the Departments of Defense, Justice, Interior, Commerce, Transportation, Energy, Homeland Security, and the Environmental Protection Agency.
A 30-day public comment period begins on February 5, 2014 and will close on March 7, 2014. During this period, members of the public and other interested parties are encouraged to submit comments on the national interest ..." ("New Keystone XL Pipeline Application", Project Information, Keystone XL Pipeline Project, U.S Department of State).