The shorts were setting up to take the stock down to the lows of this morning. When they see buying strength they layed off so as not to waste their monry. When the buying is abated about 17.80 they will start selling one trade lower than the last. No one trying to get out of a long position would do like that. After a while you can tell. When the buying gets too rough, maybe around 16 they will try to disguise their short covering buys.
Yes, 16 is probably where they are comfortable taking it to. If UNG continues to show weakness they may get it to 16 by middle of next week. Hopefully the insiders will have faith that 16 is ridiculously low and will refrain from selling when their window of opportunity opens up next week. If they start to sell the shorts will see it and will have a field day!. If that happens we could test 14. At 14, even a blow out quarter would only take us some of the way back to the low 20's. God forbid the quarter and conf. call are perceived as bad. I don't even want to contemplate what that could do to the SP should we be trading in the 14-16 levels mid-Feb.