Let’s take a look at the numbers from 2010. $367M revenue, broken out, according to the percentages given in the call, as: $88.1M SDS, $29.4M Life Sciences, $168.8M Copper, $58.7M Nowpack, and $22M Other. I wish I had the numbers from prior years to see how these have changed – I’m sure some smart analyst out there has them. Of particular interest for me would be the SDS numbers vs prior years. The revenues in SDS would be a great indicator how much ATMI has been cutting prices and/or losing share. Also, this is an easy revenue stream to model – get tight with Varian to get their shipments of implanters, understand how many cylinders each implanter needs, make some assumptions, and build a model. Easy to understand if the business is growing at the pace of, or slower than the market to understand how much price drag or share loss to Prax is really occurring.
What still doesn’t add up is Doug’s assertion that ATMI will get back to growing at 2X wafer starts. Years ago when ATMI actually was growing that fast, they rode the copper wave by partnering with Enthone and selling their chemistries, as well as benefitting from the growth in copper cleaning chemistries. From existing processes converting to copper to new copper fabs being built in the early 2000’s, the growth of copper wafers was exponential, allowing ATMI to grow at 2X market rates for a short period of time as they benefitted from the copper explosion, and their revenue base was smaller. But, for some reason Doug continued to hold onto the 2X wafer start mantra despite no new industry wide technologies, like copper, being implemented. Plus, without any new products, one wonders how they could continue to make the 2X growth claims, when year after year they missed them.