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ProShares UltraShort S&P500 Message Board

  • buzz60016 buzz60016 Jun 4, 2012 1:43 PM Flag

    Oil to crash the markets ?

    Delta, I miss your postings :

    High oil to crash the markets
    Greece default soon - markets crash
    tvix to $100 soon

    ----------

    High oil didnt crash the markets
    Greece is the least of our worries

    Shouldnt tease delta, he is smart enough to identify a few problems, but not smart enough to understand, printing will delay the End Game.

    Eventually Delta will right,

    Problem is, those on the wrong side of the trade will not be able to pay.
    Thus those on the right side of the trade, will not be able to collect

    It will be interesting when nations default, brokerage houses default, the big banking holiday.

    The longer the problem is kicked down the road, with more rescue packages of printing and more printing, the larger the problem.

    Printing works, but not forever.
    In the next few years, all of the old debt, will have to be rolled over......debt levels will go parabolic. Or debt levels are currently going parabolic. It is not sustainable forever.....eventually the piper will have to paid.

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    • Buzzzzzzz oh Buz,

      At times you sound so much like a perma bear.

      When the market clears, it will not be the end of the world - regardless if it happens because of Austerity, inflation or war. The key thing is to make money on the crash, then get to cash, then put your money in beaten down domestic blue chips.

      Easy in theory, will be difficult in practice. As far as counter parties are concerned - the only thing you need to really worry about is the stabilty of the Money Market fund that your brokerage house uses. Tis a worry, but nothing like the counter party risk associated with CDS.

      I do not believe the world comes to an end. Just want to make money when the rooster comes home to roost.......

      • 2 Replies to gabyegp
      • Just want to make money when the rooster comes home to roost.......

        Gaby, how do you plan to collect, when the counter party can not pay ?

        Those who have wrote "puts" will never be able to pay, when the rooster comes home to roost. The government will wash the trades, for the good of the country. AIG will not be bailed out a second time. imo

      • Of course the world will not end.....never does.

        This is just one, of many financial disasters, over the past few thousand years.

        Nations rise and fall.
        Markets rise and fall.

        The END GAME is reference to the current market cycle.

    • The longer the problem is kicked down the road, with more rescue packages of printing and more printing, the larger the problem.

      Just another baseless assumtion form Buzzland.

    • rhammers200...I agree with your view on oil. Especially the concept of manipulation.

      When free market forces return, it will be interesting.

      Someday, government intervention will stop distorting markets. Someday printing will stop being an effective tool. Timing is key

    • We aren't going to have high oil while Iran keeps going with its nuclear program.

      Saudi Arabia is intentionally over producing in order to keep the price of oil down. They are doing it because India and China are getting around Iran sanctions by buying oil from Iran using gold. Thus the US is doing what it can to supress the price of oil and gold as much as it can. Saudi Arabia is just a pawn in that game. They are probably doing it because they are guaranteed a return via some derivative deal.

      It also has the side benefit of helping Obama's re-election by keeping gas prices down.

      However, when the Iran issue is resolved, the artificial manipulation of oil and gold will end, and those prices will snap significantly higher. So Obama is better off if the Iran issue isn't resolved until AFTER he is re-elected.

      • 2 Replies to rhammers2000
      • Saudi is over producing because the Japanese are burning raw hydrocarbon to produce electricity to make up for the short-fall from their shutdown nukes.

        Peak Oil is a baloney conspiracy theory. $100 a barrel crude makes every shut-in well on earth profitable, and every multi-million barrel producing field fabuluously profitable. Peak Oil Luddites will make fortunes for energy producers until the battery boys finally get it right.

        Canards, cliches, and stupidity. The Three Horsemen of Economic Apocalypse.

      • I don't share this view on oil. I don't believe Saudi Arabia has the spare capacity to force oil prices down. They did at one time in history, but that time has passed.

    • Market circuit breakers to save the market ?

      When markets are closed, investors become more stressed.

      Illiquid markets.....
      Can not buy or sell when the market is closed.

      Give the market time to cool off ?

      Markets should have never been allowed to rise to dangerous levels in the first place.

      Unregulated derivatives, not a good idea.

      Who is fighting, regulation of derivatives ? Why do they not want regulation ?

      --------

      The tax payer will get stuck with the tab, to clean up the mess, once again.

 
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