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Meritage Homes Corporation Message Board

  • glassinc glassinc Apr 20, 2002 8:40 PM Flag

    Climax Run


    Congrats to anyone long this co., though I've some ?s for anyone here, & Please don't tell me your a long term investor, so you have no concern about the price of this stock. Please don't espouse to me about the fundamentals. As since that news is out prior to this most recent runup, should it not be all in yet, it's getting close.

    Do you know what a climax run is, know what a parabolic curve looks like, & do you have an exit stategy to lock in profits? Your witnessing 1 here, it's nice to be on the right side of it, not so nice when they end. Whether you chose to believe it or not @ some pt. within the next few days is very likely. The split run & short squeeze on a stock with this low of a float is an amazing thing to watch unfold.

    I see there are some that have gotten out, don't be too hard on yourself. Noone gets in @ the bottom or out @ the top consistently. Has anyone here bought this @ 80 or 90, whats your objective, your risk? Objectively speaking if you didn't or hadn't owned it, would you buy it now, & why?

    Up 13 out of 14 days nearly 2 straight weeks, & 11 in a row going for 12 or more. Here's a warning sign to look for that will signal the exit, an inside day price within the priors days range, or an outside day where price exceeds the prior days high & closes @ or near the low of day. Look for high volume on this day also.

    Good Trading/investing to All, & God Bless You!! Kelly

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    • Hello,

      Again you seem to be the only that indicates being threatened by my post. Should there have been no truth in those words, there would be no harm. I made that statement based upon your reply to me. My intent wasn't to be condescending, that's you perception. I merely asked some ?s, if 1 were aware or had such plans, where is the harm? If 1 didn't it is food for thought. This appears more to be about how Alex feels, & is threatened by your replies, than it is about others.

      It wouldn't benefit me in anyway to attempt to scare someone out of a position. If you purchased this right, you've nothing to be concerned about. I stated that if shares were bought in the 80s - 90s to be cautious. Purchasing in this area what is the risk/reward Alex. The stock is up around 3 since I posted, maybe it goes to 100.

      I did check on shares & they are available. I could offer no strategy on a position I didn't hold until moments ago. I have initiated my position & was filled @ 92.71. It is my belief that after the news it may selloff, as the market anticipates the news will be good. All the other homebuilders that have reported thus far have met or exceeded, this should be no different.

      Alex, if each person on this board sold all their shares, & then went short, there would be no impact. I understand your cynicism, though I don't agree with it. As I realize others have come here, as well as other boards with an agenda in an attempt to misguide people. I've no hard feeings, which I believe are apparent in my reply. I may be able to scalp out with a profit, & then again I may not. It's not something to be held long term.

      May it Go Well for You, God Bless & GFtY!! Kelly

    • Kelly, you say:
      <<< I havn't ridiculed anyone, you seem to be the only 1 thus far with that belief. I don't respond to negativity with negativity, there is no benefit to it. As you chose to ignore ?s I've asked of you, while attempting to attack me. Your thoughts, attitudes, & outbursts are reflections of yourself. >>>

      So you don't think that your comment here was condescending and insulting? Post # 1671:

      <<< Ah, how refreshing to come back to the yahoo boards. Where the mentality of those is to @ times attack others personally when 1 does not view an issue in exactly the same light. This is precisely why I return here on occasion. Should you chose @ some pt. to seek another path where people are knowledgable in fundamentals, technicals, & encouraging views that differ from their own, try Clearstation, or Silicon Investor, or MasterMind Forum. >>>

      I feel that with the above comment you insult the "Yahoos" here with your comments about those "superior" message boards; and insult me in particular with your "should you choose at some point to seek another path". Oh thank you, Sir Swami, your benificence.

      I also object to the way you came on to this board, trying to scare people out of this stock. Here is an excerpt from your first post, # 1656:

      <<< Do you know what a climax run is, know what a parabolic curve looks like, & do you have an exit stategy to lock in profits? Your witnessing 1 here, it's nice to be on the right side of it, not so nice when they end. Whether you chose to believe it or not @ some pt. within the next few days is very likely. The split run & short squeeze on a stock with this low of a float is an amazing thing to watch unfold. >>>

      Ooooh, scary, scary! Of course, the stock is up nicely from where you tried to scare everyone. You're just some guy at a keyboard, just like everyone else here pal. Trying to act like Mr. Guru, with no particular track record. Then pretending of all things, that you don't have a position in the stock! You said you'd check about shorting though, right? Yeah sure thing pal, I guess you "forgot" to check on that.

      I still say you've come here as "Mr. Friendly, your Buddy" and in the meantime tried to poison people's minds against this stock, and homebuilder stocks in general. It's an interesting tactic, but it doesn't work with me.

      So - buddy, o pal of ours - thanks for your condescending scare tactics, which you say isn't ridicule. If you are being honest, then you should be able to understand why some people would fail to trust you; if you are being honest you shouldn't take it personally when some don't believe you. You said it was fine with me to believe what I liked, so thanks I will do just that. But if you are trying to fool us all here, and then are using His name at the end of your posts, you should think pretty hard about that because that would have consequences much worse than losing some money. Believe me I do not take such things lightly.

      I did ask you what your strategy was for covering your short position in MTH, but frankly I don't care. Just realize that after Wednesday, you may have to pay a lot more than you expected to cover. And probably a lot more the next day, and next week, next quarter and next year. But I'm thinking you are looking for the fast buck short. Maybe you'll get it, but probably not after Wednesday. Goodbye.

    • I just checked out LLL - they were awarded a portion of a quite sizable contact late today.
      this along with the fundamentals of the industry and the recent results make this look interesting - thanks for the suggestion
      by the way - the 20% short interest is not reflected in Yahoo rather 5% - where do you get accurate info?

      I agree with your comments re stock splits - but it is amazing how much psychology seems to impact the market - I have increased my returns since moving toward buying more expensive stocks

    • Hi,

      Well you've done well for yourself here being in @ that pt., & have bagged 50% + @ this pt. I'd just follow the rules of your strategy based upon what you've learned from O'Neil, & other trades.

      An excellent return thus far in a short period, may the ride for you continue. Give it room to run, & watch if it becomes too parabolic. With tech taking a beating, money gravitates toward what's trending. Though in this issue the float is low, & will be even after this split. Folllow the steps of the institutions as they control most of the stock in this. Do you use the IBD website?

      May your diligence continue to pay off for you & your Family!! God Bless & GFtY! Kelly

    • yes you are right - my daughter loves that movie and so I chose the name
      IBD is great - I read his books , and while I am not a pure technical trader, I am learning
      I have been in MTH since $60 but it is looking a little pricey now - earnings and split this week should be interesting
      I am looking at WLS - trading at 5.8 pe , but they dont have the track record of MTH , or the quality of management - I have read and heard some great things about Steve Hilton - he is the main reason I got into this stock
      I research quality of management - and use that primarily to make my decisions, and technical analysis when to get out etc

    • Curleysue,

      Hi, character from the movie with little girl looking for a wife for her father, & a mom, if so Great show.

      As for your ? it appears these homebuilders may have room to run, though I'd be patient, & buy on a pullback, unless of course your already in.

      The defense sector still appears to be strong & finding opps there may also be sound. I don't make recs per say. Though today LLL had a great report & announced a split before the close, look for a gap up possibly, & run into the split on 20 may. Don't know as it will take off quite like this, though 1 never knows, it has about a 20% short interest, so a squeeze is likely.

      The small caps still should continue to outperform, just be discrete in what you purchase, & not far from a sound base, or wait for the pullback. Check into IBD, good info for investing w fundamentals as well as simple technicals.

      Thanks for the compliment!! Good Luck with your investing!! God Bless & GFtY!! Kelly

    • thanks for your messages Kelly
      I think you are a "real" Mr nice guy, and call me nieve, but I think your investing strategy is pretty sound
      it is unfortunate that the cynics in this world always look at the glass half empty .
      do you have any other stocks you like now?

    • Alex,

      Hello, & that's fine with me, you believe what you like. I believe harp is a pretty strong word for what I've stated.

      Originally when my wife & I bought hdi, we had no such strategy except to hold as long as the co. appeared to be doing well. Split adjusted with all dividends reinvested our basis would be just over $5.00. In the last 2 yrs. through hedging with covered calls & puts, we've no cost basis in our shares. I do believe that after the anniversiary this yr., or should the stock gain another 25 - 30% before then it's time to sell.

      The shares havn't improved 1000s of % as you state. Since owning ours close to 1000% is more accurate. I believe better opportunities in smaller cos. are out there. It would be very difficult for hdi to return another near 1000% or anywhere close in the next 10 yrs. I monitor our position & keep up on the news. @ most I'd be willing to lose 25 - 30% within the area of new highs.

      You were fortunate in your avg. down, tell that to someone who holds wcom, or ene, mo, when it went down 2 yrs. ago. Sure it came back, though there's no gurantee. You can believe that what is correct just applies to each individual. That's why individuals that don't have rules, & a strategy eventually either end up out of the markets from sustaining heavy losses. Then there are those that do implement them, & over time they continue to improve.

      I havn't ridiculed anyone, you seem to be the only 1 thus far with that belief. I don't respond to negativity with negativity, there is no benefit to it. As you chose to ignore ?s I've asked of you, while attempting to attack me. Your thoughts, attitudes, & outbursts are reflections of yourself.

      Have a Nice Evening Alex!! God Bless & GFtY!! Kelly

    • <<< I'm not short this stock as I stated previously, though for curiousity ... >>>

      Sorry pal, I don't believe you. Too many posts here for you to be without a short position. The "Mr. Nice Guy" approach, "here to help", "here to educate" - sorry, I'm not buying it. Seen it before; not fooled.

      You keep harping about people "needing an exit strategy", etc. Yet you also claim you have been long HDI shares since 1993. Nice going, HDI (Harley Davidson) is a great company, great brand, awesome stock in the 90's (and even now). So I'll ask you what you keep asking us here....

      What's been your exit strategy on HDI? Huh? Huh? Huh? Because (according to you), if you don't have one, you're a bad investor. Yet it seems to me that if you actually had an exit strategy on HDI, you'd have been out long ago, and missed many 1000's of % gain in that incredible stock.

      So come on, what's been your exit strategy in HDI? Huh? Huh? Huh? What?! You didn't have one? Oh wait, maybe you can make something up now, and tell us your exit was never triggered.

      Also your claim that one should never average down on a stock is lame. If a stock has value, you can buy it now, and if it goes lower and still has value, you can buy it lower. I realize there's an "adage" that one shouldn't average down, but it is BS just like you. Earlier this year I bought MIR at $13, then more at $10, more at $9, more at $8.00. It went into the $7's, I decided to wait for $5 or $6 to buy more, but it never went that low. Soon it went back into the $14's, pulled back to the $13's (where it is now) and I sold. I made a nice short term profit, nearly 100% on an annualized basis. Couldn't have done it if I'd followed your moronic "don't average down" rule.

      Bottom line is, whatever works for the individual is "correct". If you are actually profiting from your own BS, then more power to you. But to come here as "Mr Nice Guy", here with no position, here to educate, is ingeniune IMO. I'd guess though that most people here, most of the longs anyway, are happy with their own ideas on investing. You've ridiculed people on this board, why don't you go back to those other boards that you claim are more genteel, or whatever (Silicon Investor, etc). Oh I know, because you are here to "help" us peons. What a nice guy, thank you!

      BTW, what's your exit strategy for your MTH short? Huh? Huh? Huh? I bet it's to cover before the April 25 earnings.

    • Hello,

      These are excellent points you've made. While after each rise, came a retracement, before a move to yet another new high level.

      With the prospect of more shares outstanding available, increases the level of ownership. The effect of a low float has 2 effects upon price those that have the majority of shares, & are willing to part with control the supply of stock letting it out as demand increases @ higher prices. The other is should they be unwilling to part with much or any, then the available shares left to trade are exchanged @ increasingly higher prices until there's no interest left to bid it higher.

      It takes volume to fuel such an increase, it's had it, however a lack of buying interest & a stock may fall of it's own weight. It will decline to a level where buyers again become interested & support prices by overcoming supply.

      The lack of mention by Greenspan of a housing bubble in & of itself doesn't mean that enthusiasm for housing stocks couldn't be temporarily or permanently overdone @ some pt. The demand may continue from here & prices after settling back, may very well continue on to newer highs over time. The rubberband is getting stretched, & may even be more so right up until thur., it will be of great interest to watch, like musical chairs. What buyers will be left w/o a chair when the music stops, or even realize that it has?

      Thanks for the compliment!! Having an open mind, & attempting to remain objective by seeing the glass 1/2 full as well as 1/2 empty will serve you well. REMEMBER THAT ALWAYS!!

      Good Trading/Investing, & God Bless & GFtY!! Kelly

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