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Pengrowth Energy Corporation Message Board

  • doc.reality doc.reality Oct 13, 2013 11:51 AM Flag

    New Position Initiated in LightStream

    LSTMF is currently being WAY UNDERVALUED, sporting a 0.37 price to book value. While the current 14.5% div may see a reduction on the horizon, management has that far down the preferred action list. They also own an extensive portfolio of high quality plays, peices that could be sold to pay off all debt and not impact current production. Op net backs of $50, $14/BOE reserves valuation... REALLY???

    This is a value so compelling that I initiated a postition -- DC Moron League and all :)
    If the dc league gets it shizzle together, I'll triple down while it's still under $7

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • payday today for LSTMF holders.
      They should declare the November divvy also.

      I noticed something interesting on the dividend page of the company site. It says...


      Lightstream Resources’s Board of Directors has approved a dividend policy that pays monthly dividends. The monthly dividend was set to $0.08 per common shares. A complete history of dividend payments can be found below.

      It does not state the dividend amount will be declared each says the dividend was set at $0.08.

      That sounds like a firm commitment to me.

    • While it's true that LightStream is selling well below asset value - the company is operating at a loss. It lost .26 cents per share in 2012 and is projecting 680 to 720 million in funds from operations in 2013 and projecting spending of 700 to 725 million on capital expenses in an attempt to offset declining production levels. That scenario leaves no way to pay the dividend without taking on more debt or selling assets and the debt level of the company is already quite high. Either way the differential between net asset value and the share price will decrease dramatically erasing your edge in this investment.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to hardmetalman1
      • Hi Hardmental, thanks for weighing in on this opportunity. While they do seem to have management issues bringing spend under control, I feel this problem has been overpriced by the market. They do have some of the highest netbacks going, a large inventory of in-ground resources and seem committed to paying the dividend. My sense is that, if they "get" the message from the street that debt management should become a priority, they would sell some in ground assets before they would change behavior or the dividend policy.
        My point of owning them now is they could sell everything at fire sale prices and still return $12 to shareholders, while paying me 14% for waiting to see how they resolve it. I also believe that the differential between NAV and PPS will decrease dramatically -- that is exactly my point :).

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Correction: LightStream lost $1.01 in 2012 not 26 cents as I stated in my last posts. Sorry for the mix up.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • no dividends, no options. I think I'll pass on any trades ... although I wish everyone well on their trades!

    • doc.reality,
      I added 1000 shares on Friday.
      Have you seen their presentation for Oct.?
      They are improving in all areas...debt is the one drawback. But, they have huge cash flow.
      It is on their corp. page
      I think they do have a commitment to keeping the divvy at .08/mo.

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