The Keystone pipeline, if it is built, is a must for the Canadians. Regardless if the Keystone or the pipeline going to the Canadian West coast comes to be operational; it will require 30% condensate or WTI used as diluent. Canada does not produce enough diluent, to date, to be used by any or both pipelines. The US condensate, the better choice, has a good potential customer. Of the 2 types of condensate, the field condensate will be used, the plant condensate can be exported, and the field condensate is not authorized to be exported. Without refinery modifications, the condensate from Eagle Fort is not wanted by the GOM refineries. Valero has heavily invested in hydrocracker to use light crude, API 42 or higher, $3 billion invested.
I read that the Bitumen Canadian crude goes for $60 per barrel and the Eagle Fort condensate for less than $40 per barrel add $15 for transport and the delivered Bitumen crude diluted is $88.00. The diluted crude has to compete with WTI, LLS and Brent.
The US export market is primarily South American and Diesel fetches the best profits. Light crude produces more gasoline than diesel. The ultimate destination of the Canadian crude is St James LA, it will have for competition LLS and Brent. I do not believe ALDW located in the Permian play, CVRR Belleview near Houston and NTI in Minnesota will see a real competition. They all have a high Nelson Rating, they could probably use it. The WTS is the alternative at a descent discount.