So at over 1B in cap spending, this company has spend over $10 per share in cap ex.
Guidance says that they will trim that back to about $700M, which means $7/share.
The savings of over $300M, which makes that free cash available to shareholders, possibly why the dividend was doubled, means to me, that this stock, if it can keep generating the cash flow that it does at that rate of cap ex, is worth about $100 per share.
I agree with your assessment. $100 per share is very realistic. Longer term, much greater appreciation is likely. Look at the history. Returns in HP and dividends alone are great. Considering that HP ahareholders received XEC as a spin-off, one needs to add another 30% or so to their return.