Wedbush May NPD report:
"May Retail Sales--$45 million
WMS Estimate--$65 million
Electronic Arts� sales were lower than our forecast, and compare with $35 million last May, a 26% year-over-year increase. The
company�s market share decreased sequentially from 19.6% last month to 15.1%, while its retail sales decreased from $64 million to $45 million. The company�s best-selling title was NBA Street Vol. 2 with 378,000 units (PS2, Xbox, GC) sold in its second month of release. MVP Baseball 2003 (PS2, Xbox) sold 53,000 units across all platforms. Madden, NBA Live, Harry Potter, James Bond 007, and Lord of the Rings also sold very well. The company�s sales were well short of our forecast, with Def Jam Vendetta selling only 62,000 units in its second month of release, compared with 262,000 units last month. Catalog sales were also somewhat lower than we expected, with only 24 titles selling more than 10,000 units. We continue to believe that Electronic Arts will generate sales well in excess of last year�s levels and expect it to maintain its market share in 2003."
"But I guess they did just now move NCAA forward into July."
Where did all the talk of moving NCAA forward into July come from?
NCAA 2003 shipped on July 22nd last year.
NCAA 2002 shipped on July 24th the year before. That was the PS2 debut.
>What did I say that changed that? That comment was in reference
>to your 3-months of nothing comment. Nice try taking it out of context though.
Huh? It is all related. My comment was that there was going to be no significant release in May, June, or July. But I guess they did just now move NCAA forward into July. The comps are not going to be looking great in those months w/o any console sales to speak of.
>I mentioned earlier in the thread April was a 90% YOY increase, and May was a 27% increase.
So when they have a big release against a YOY comparison with no big release that gets touted but when there is no release against a YOY comparison, that is nothing to worry about.
>June has Def Jam and NBA Street and MVP and various other title to carry it,
Oh yeah, those are just flying off the shelves right now.
As a former EA bear i must agree with cantbreath. They moved up NCAA and EA will meet or beat estimates. And DJV is very strong overseas along with SIMS. Remember EA has already expensed a large portion of royalty costs and development costs in the last 2 quarters where they outperformed. There EPS would have been even higher had they not done so,but EA doesn't have to sell a gazillion more games than they did last year to meet this FY EPS guidance. So IMO it's going to take a major flop or series of underperforming titles for EA to miss. Maybe the better fierce competition coming on the PC or if Freedom:Soldiers of Liberty can't find it's audience then EA has some problems but they'll make their numbers easier IMO. Don't forget they held back DJV to April 1st to help this quarter's numbers and are gettin better royalty rates from the GC although that doesn't help much if GC don't buy the titles.
3 months? What are you talking about.
I mentioned earlier in the thread April was a 90% YOY increase, and May was a 27% increase. June has Def Jam and NBA Street and MVP and various other title to carry it, plus an F-1 title which is mainly Euro but still...so July will have NCAA (see press release from today) and Aug starts Madden and boom, we're there, what's this 3 month stuff? If they clear June, they are going to beat estimates, period!
Remember there are more PS2's out there this year than last and another price drop is almost certain before xmas...personally, I don't see how they CAN'T beat last year.
>Not much, I think that was my point.
So, 3 consecutive months . . . at what point does one worry? Well, Madden & NCAA will be there in August. But they were there last year too.
Well, it is a good thing they make money on this good-selling title:
Final Fantasy X
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