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Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) Message Board

  • chiefpeeinpool chiefpeeinpool Jun 11, 2004 4:01 PM Flag

    sega

    every year the same posts come and go. promises of taking market share. again the sales tape always tells a different story

    03. Sega spends 15mill to market NFL2K. Results in 03 include ..Sega of America today confirmed that it is pulling the entire Sega Sports lineup of games from Nintendo GameCube. The company said that it would continue to deliver high-quality 'entertainment' titles like Sonic the Hedgehog for the console.

    Sega sold 144,000 units of its NFL 2K3 American football game in the U.S. in August, versus sales of 1.16 million of Electronic Arts' Madden NFL 2003 game, said Jay Defibaugh, an analyst with Credit Suisse First Boston Securities (Japan) Ltd., citing a monthly industry survey." "August sales for the game only came in at about 150,000 units. Considering the company initially shipped over one million copies, we would have hoped for at least 400,000 or 500,000 sold," said Morgan Stanley analyst Shunji Yamanishi."

    Some people may have had over-inflated expectations for Sega's sports game business in the U.S.'' said Defibaugh, who has a ``neutral'' rating on Sega shares


    Sega starts to raise the white flag.

    Erts....

    Electronic Arts, the world's leading developer and publisher of video games, has extended its lead in the industry's biggest sports category -- football. Independent research on retail sales ranks EA's Madden NFL 2003 and NCAA Football 2003 first and second respectively, ahead of the NFL game of the closest competitor. Volume on EA's football games is up 142 percent over the prior year with no significant market share lost to competition. "Gamers and retailers have voted," said EA's Vice President of Marketing Frank Gibeau, "EA SPORTS Madden NFL 2003 and NCAA 2003 football games are in a league all their own. The lopsided victory in football shows a great trend line for the upcoming launch of basketball, racing and hockey games from EA SPORTS." Information collected from sources including NPDFunworld TRSTS Video Games Service for July/August includes the data for the launch of all industry football games in 2002. Key points include: Overall, EA SPORTS captured 84.9 percent of the total football market. The closest competitor got 8.4 percent. Among just the NFL games, EA's Madden had 82.7 percent market share; the closest competitor had 10.3 percent of the market for NFL games. Madden NFL 2003 and NCAA Football 2003 lead their respective categories on every major platform including the PlayStation 2 computer entertainment system, Nintendo GameCube, Xbox video game system from Microsoft and the PC. <br>Among college football games, EA's NCAA Football 2003 captured 96.2 percent of the console market -- a 5.8 percent share increase over last year. The closest competitor got 3.2 percent of the NCAA market -- 6.4 percent less than the year prior. In 2001, football constituted 23.3 percent of the market for sports games and sports represented 22 percent of all game sales in North America. Video game sales track much like motion picture box office -- the first month's sales usually determine success and failure. A game that launches poorly almost never improves in the months that follow

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    • sandyliar,

      Interesting that you couldn't point to one single post where what you predicted actually turned out to be true. Could it be that you're just a habitual liar? Remember the one where you called the last James Bond release a 'flop' and gave some outrageously low sales figure? 2 million copies just doesn't seem to be a hit to you, does it? Talk about blind! I'm more convinced than ever that you must be purposively lying. Either that, or you couldn't find your own ass using both hands ;-)

      Jamok

    • Chief,

      Wonderful exposition of the truth about ERTS. But it's 'pearls before swine', given the addressee.
      Also, a small bit of news - ERTS announced that they'll be publishing the next 'Oddworld' game for ps2 and x-box, expected in 2005. That was always a great and unique series - I'm interested in what they'll come up with this time. I've always thought that Oddworld would make a great animation movie, put in the right hands.
      What the bashers never seem to appreciate is that ERTS has the fundamentals down pat - execute splendidly, and prepare the pipeline for the future, and watch the money roll in.

      Jamok

    • Potter will do well in its UK home, but it�s under-performed this summer

      So if its underperfomed then there has to be estimates that need to be made. What are estimates? What are expectations across the platforms that need to be met? What are Street expectations on Potter?

      Not good for the #1 video game company.

      How much are they counting on, I have this feeling some companies realize theres other games out there and do something call estimates. Managing inventory etc.They arent in the habit of having to revise earnings estimates like some companies or have shipping problems so again when I see the numbers ill see how its doing but ill get back to that cystal ball in the interim.

      You think one title, the Godfather, will make a dent into that 20% market? My mistake its 12% of the market. Will it make a dent, its beginning. Again I feel like im talking to Pachter here. Right or wrong they avoided the market. Whats amazing is their entire market share in 99 was 10%, its 22% today. Look at the breakdown of the racing genre before they decided to get into it recently. Those % changed. Not good for other companies if they choose.

      �Lets look at marketshare. Kudos to Thqi, big fan, and UBI has 7%. Both gained market share this but #2 pub is still doubled by #1.�

      Not true.

      UBI said 7% of Us. Thats per the last cc. Now if your disagreeing on market share, cowboy up and produce the #'s. Its more that double its competition of western publishing.


      Now heres where i start to laugh. I asked you for #'s theres conjecture. Forget Sims, Madden etc theres GTA and Halo. 10 for GTA is high, but feel free to invest over there. It will do well. There was good writeup on Gameinformer on it but 10's a bold #. Junebug OG's and Jack Blade returns to the neighborhood to seek revenge. Will be big in Europe. Psst they also have DTR2, DRV3 and Getaway, TC2 etc. See, theres a pattern, shocking enough, theres competition for every game. Its a tough biz.

      So i wanted to see what the estimates might be for Dec/Jan and lo and behold the same cut and paste has been going on since Jan. (Besides the obligatory Ill cover at 30). You have been concerned since last yr about next yr. Thats a hell of a short you have. You will have great company here with the "shorted more" "bought more" guys. The funny thing all the posting doesnt effect the price.

      EA has concerns, competition etc. But win or lose, most just want to cover the spread. Sorry i cant get emotional enough to have an ongoing concern whether they meet their #'s 6 months from now because the limits or stops will dictate what happens.

      But after seeing the same stuff was posted for the last 6 months, Jamok was rigth. its a waste of time

      This concludes our broadcast. Good luck with your position.

    • Thanks for the tip. Im heading out for 18 today, im sure this wont be the last advice for today. Sony "officially" changed their dates several times over the last yr and if EB Games was a certain, Id have Doom3 last yr. But if its released in Nov, its a great franchise. If its going to hurt EA,AKLM,TTWO etc who also have games should they all stop? Im interested in what BOA3,NASCAAR,and NFSU2 esp in light of xbox live are going to be projected. I heard every company and genre have competition each yr.

      There will be no LOTR movie to stimulate sales. LOTR:TA is an RPG and will appeal to very few people compared to the mass appeal of the earlier versions. 2 million for Bond, I don�t think so.

      Van Helsig had a game and a movie. Didnt stimulate sales. If LOTR is an RPG then yes, theres less appeal, esp if its PC. Looks like the studios who did CC and Dune2 are doing it. I believe they were rated in the top 10 RPG so at least the quality would be good. Milking the cow, still a credit to getting the license on one of the most successful movies ever.

      "2 million for Bond, I don�t think so". Released Feb 18th, top 10th selling game from Jan to March, drumroll...... by 4/29/04 sold 2 million globally. Fact. Show me your #'s, Ill correct it for you. Little more viable than " I dont think so"

      ESPN Football is rated as high as Madden and has received critical acclaim. This strategy will work this year because ESPN will be high quality and already getting a lot of Buzz. Also, Madden will lose pricing power of $50 a month after release.

      See 989 Studios, XSN in previous yrs. Heard same thing. Again ESPN the last few yrs got high rating, acclaim, buzz etc. The reality of sales was quite different from what was promised on fanboy sites. There isnt a doubt it will not sell or get high ratings. Speaking of Sega hows their success vs NCAA Football, NCAA basketball, NFL Street, Bball. It would help to see how much of a difference it makes with your numbers. TIA

      Madden will lose pricing power of $50 a month after release

      Wow a fact. I have a feeling between now and say Sept we will see countless Sega is kicking Maddens ass etc or Sears has Madden for 41.10. DISCOUNT!! Trouble for EA. Im bored already.

      Other companies are putting out new IP�s this console cycle. Why not ERTS?
      They had a different strategy. They went with predictable stable of movie licences, sequels, and sports. Why do they have have the best margins in the business? Why dont they gamble everything on a new IP, say like a Manhunt or Vexx. Ill take conservative any day then bet it all on a new title like some companys did. Theres a fine line to balance both. So 3 billion in revenue wasnt enough. Cant make everybody happy (etc looking at the chart some shareholders). If you want to discuss why they didnt introduce new IP go to Bored Room and ask them. Pack a lunch.

    • See ya, Chief. Catch you on your next visit.

      Jamok

    • �Didnt know Potter and Catman sales where out. Since its release #1 in UK for 3 weeks. Ill see the NPD #'s before calling it a failure. Whats been the Potter sellthrough from when they got the license. I thought collectively over 6 mill but might be off. Seemed like it was a good move. How did any company not sign up Potter, Bond, LOTR, Superman etc years ago. How come no company got Marvel to create brand new characters for it etc etc. Its a dumb argument. I can point to mistakes by the company but not that. Theres a reason why they will always have 1st choice at any movie and have the negotating power other companies dont have. Track record, $, name brand and marketing.�

      Potter will do well in its UK home, but it�s under-performed this summer. This was supposed to be EA�s big summer offering. Compare that to Shrek2 and soon Spiderman2. Those two games will outsell Potter and Catwoman by 3 to 1 margin. Not good for the #1 video game company.

      �They avoided the 20% that makes up the mature market. That will change. Godfather will be start. With your logic Madden sold 37 million so far, how could anyone allow that. How can T2 not be able to manage earnings, lose mrkt share, have shitty ports under their best label. Look at the rev,mrkt share and performance. T2 has 1 thing on them, its a great thing but they havent capalized on their success. Thats what you need to do. Its a tough business if you don�t�

      You think one title, the Godfather, will make a dent into that 20% market?

      �Lets look at marketshare. Kudos to Thqi, big fan, and UBI has 7%. Both gained market share this but #2 pub is still doubled by #1.�

      Not true.

      �What are your projections for Madden, DefJam, TigerWoods, BO3, Nascar, Sims2, Fifa(live) NSFU2, Catwoman, and NHL that will cause a problem? Xbox live, more consoles sold and companies like AKLM,EIDSY,ATAR,TTWO seem to be going in the opposite direction. Plus it takes cash to develope next gen games. Think 2.4 bill in cash, no debt will hurt them in not having the ability to increase rev going forward at the minumum of the expense of others?�

      My points are that 15 million games (GTA and Halo2) will be sold this holiday season that EA won�t have anything to do with. EA capitalized on their absence last year. 4 games sold over 4 million copies last Christmas (LOTR, FIFA, NFSU, MOH) and this year I can�t think of a single holiday release from EA that might sell over 4 million copies. Maybe FIFA will repeat, but that�s it. ERTS is going to match last year�s number, let alone show growth this year versus last year.

    • Chief, I think you need to brush up on your gaming knowledge a bit�

      �Competition is nothing new. Outsold MC2. 6 million sold. Now it will be XBOX live, should further sales. Impressive.You have a date on GT? Sony might be holding that out for the console transition. Regardless. BO3, with XBOX live, what are projections on sellthrough?. 2 versions sold over 2 mill without EA. That will change as well. And while we are on racing, whats the projections on Nascaar in addition which will be Xbox live this yr.�

      Yes, Sony has officially declared a November release date. EB and Gamestop have it scheduled for 11/14. GT is the biggest selling racing franchise ever.

      �Again you might want to check that. Besides LOTR and as for Bond, last copy sold 550k in 45 days and the last movie had its highest gross yet. Last I saw by April it sold 2 million. Goldeneye. Thats a dead franchise.�

      There will be no LOTR movie to stimulate sales. LOTR:TA is an RPG and will appeal to very few people compared to the mass appeal of the earlier versions. 2 million for Bond, I don�t think so.

      �#'s tell a different story on Segas success. Again they tried the discount approach after spending 20 million one yr in advertising. And they lost. Madden 6 million, MSFT and Sony bailed on sports, Moore got fired and Segas parent company doesnt back it. NFL only makes more money off of apparel than it does off of Madden. Besides cost issues and NFL license, Sega tries for 5-10% of a market and burns cash in the process. ESPN doesnt seem to back it either. Horrible business strategy. It will be like the DC days. Theres a reason why Sammy doesnt back it. But thats one game. How is it Segas success vs NCAA Football, NCAA basketball. Even NFL Street, Bball etc dominate.�

      ESPN Football is rated as high as Madden and has received critical acclaim. This strategy will work this year because ESPN will be high quality and already getting a lot of Buzz. Also, Madden will lose pricing power of $50 a month after release.

      �So going into a console yr nows the time to introduce new IP? Sounds like Pachter nonsense. Those boring sequels produced 3 billion in rev last yr. And those cataloge/platinum over 20 selling over a mill. Something about diversity and consistency is a curse.�

      Other companies are putting out new IP�s this console cycle. Why not ERTS?

    • THQ has cornered the kids game market and Ubisoft has cornered the military genre. ERTS is not going away, but it's going to have big problems over the next 6-12 months.


      Sorry i said #1 doubled #2. After looking at Wedbush preview they have mrkt share stated as

      erts may 2004 22.6% vs last yr 15.1
      thqi 7.5 vs 6.0
      atvi 6.0 6.9
      ttwo 5.3 4.5

      so to say doubled is incorrect. wee higher apparently. very good for thqi.

      not a big wedbush fan but they said potter,boxing, and bond looked to be selling well. amazing they can resurrect fighnight after all these years and churn out over 1 mill plus.

      sandy i know your a stickler for the facts so sorry for an incorrect statements. i tried.

      see ya jamok, ive posted enough for the month.

    • Smaller, nimbler companies like Activision, T2, and THQ have been able to carve their niche market and seem much more in touch with video game players. How can Activision secure game licenses to the biggest movies this summer, Shrek2 and Spiderman2 and ERTS is putting out a very underperforming Harry Potter and Catwoman?

      Didnt know Potter and Catman sales where out. Since its release #1 in UK for 3 weeks. Ill see the NPD #'s before calling it a failure. Whats been the Potter sellthrough from when they got the license. I thought collectively over 6 mill but might be off. Seemed like it was a good move. How did any company not sign up Potter, Bond, LOTR, Superman etc years ago. How come no company got Marvel to create brand new characters for it etc etc. Its a dumb argument. I can point to mistakes by the company but not that. Theres a reason why they will always have 1st choice at any movie and have the negotating power other companies dont have. Track record, $, name brand and marketing.

      How can a dominant company like ERTS allow a smaller player to put out the biggest selling game, year after year, in GTA, selling over 25 million copies so far?

      They avoided the 20% that makes up the mature market. That will change. Godfather will be start. With your logic Madden sold 37 million so far, how could anyone allow that. How can T2 not be able to manage earnings, lose mrkt share, have shitty ports under their best label. Look at the rev,mrkt share and performance. T2 has 1 thing on them, its a great thing but they havent capalized on their success. Thats what you need to do. Its a tough business if you dont

      THQ has cornered the kids game market and Ubisoft has cornered the military genre. ERTS is not going away, but it's going to have big problems over the next 6-12 months.

      Lets look at marketshare. Kudos to Thqi, big fan, and UBI has 7%. Both gained market share this but #2 pub is still doubled by #1.

      What are your projections for Madden, DefJam, TigerWoods, BO3, Nascar, Sims2, Fifa(live) NSFU2, Catwoman, and NHL that will cause a problem? Xbox live, more consoles sold and companies like AKLM,EIDSY,ATAR,TTWO seem to be going in the opposite direction. Plus it takes cash to develope next gen games. Think 2.4 bill in cash, no debt will hurt them in not having the ability to increase rev going forward at the minumum of the expense of others?

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