$84 range Raph so I hope you covered some. I
covered at 85 7/8 but it did not make me anything as my
average on those shares was around 86 5/8.
last weeks crushing move on some other stocks I have
decided to take my money and go long on a few like TFS,
VSH. Will lookk to reenter again around
Also added to ATVI ahead of earnings. Geez if ERTS can
do so well on reduced estimates and with a high
valuation maybe I will also get a pop out of ATVI. They
dont have the PS2 lineup of ERTS but current slate of
PC and PS games doing better than average.
This stock has moved from the 50s to
three or so months...in the same three months, the
analysts adjusted last quarter earnings from
think) to a loss of 65c...and when ERTS reported only
-60c, we go up 15 bucks in two days!!! (They
the numbers (!))...ERTS is definitely being groomed
for greatness...I'm in for the ps2 ride up, but i
didn't quite expect this movement so early...any ideas
as to what the upside is for us?...and when
bail?...(next earnings report is
suspiciouly close to ps2
at my own stupidity. I won't bore you with my sad
story. The short version is that I covered some at 77+
when we didn't go down on Wednesday, but broke out on
the 15-minute instead. BUT, I didn't cover enough to
feel good about shorting more yet. Once again, I
should have covered the rest at $88 so I could short
$95. Live and learn (or not).
Watching to short
a break on the hourly. May have to cover my current
short and take my lumps if it doesn't break. Hoping
that spike at the close on Friday was just short
Best of luck to all.
That sounds like a great way to lose $$$$$$$$$$$.
You keep covering at lower levels and buying at
higher levels with no hope of recovery if the stock
simply continues to move up. Are you playing this game
on margin? Risky, risky.
BTW, I am absolutely
dumfounded at this run and I am one of the biggest bulls on
the board. I also pride myself on my ability to
target the trading range of ERTS but boy did I miss this
one. This feels like last year all over
BTW, you have got to ignore the PS2 response in Japan.
Japan has had little to no effect on ERTS earnings in
the past and is in no way indicative of how that PS2
will do here.
Black and White may not have cost EA much at all
in dollars. When Peter Molyneux wanted to leave
Bullfrog/EA he was under contract and a big reason they
purchased Bullfrog was for the properties he was
instrumental in creating and maintaining (Theme Park, Dungeon
Keeper, Populous, Black and White). But his departure was
inevitable and the fall-out was that his first game (B&W) be
published and distributed by EA and if I remember correctly
his next two games are also to be distributed by EA.
So the cost of the development and the property
itself are moot. The real cost is to Bullfrog's future.
That wasn't a cheap acquisition and you're really
paying for the talent, but the talent followed Molyneux
out the door. What with Lionhead, Mucky Foot, and at
least one other start-up EA has lost many of the key
developers and designers of the properties they paid big
bucks for. His departure was well documented at the
time in a big interview in the UK trade mag
As an aside, while B&W should do extremely well it's
also the last title Lionhead will lead with on the PC.
Similarly with the Unreal Tournament developers, they're
moving to consoles for their game development. Yet more
evidence of the PC as a dying gaming platform, especially
when the X-Box comes out. Sure an occassional game
like the Sims or Diablo sells over a million but
console titles like Final Fantasy sell 9 million. And
most PC titles sell very poorly, Madden for example is
outsold by it's PlayStation brother by something like
Spec, thanks for the www.ebworld.com link but you
obviously missed my "Let's be honest, they're not the
cheapest out there" remark. A quick comparison with
www.express.com e.g. shows DC games like Tony Hawk's, Baseball
2K1, Marvel vs Capcom etc. all significantly cheaper
there, by as much as $9. ELBO won't be getting my
btw Marlon, point acknowledged about the numbers game
big but it is scheduled for the December qtr and
pretty close to the end of November. Would be crapy if
they missed the scheduled date a missed Christmas
season. I suspect the profits from Black and White would
not be that huge because it was such a highly touted
title and it is developed by Lionhead ERTS probably
paid a pretty penny for the rights to publish. Will
not be as big a money maker as the SIMS have been for
I disagree with your statement that nothing big
is coming this year. Black and White will be huge.
That game looks totally bad ass. I'm going to waste at
least a week playing it myself... But, if your point is
that this stock is getting ahead of itself, that's
hard to refute. I'll ride it up and down, because I
like what they do, and I like what they plan to do.
but last year for the September qtr EA posted
revs of $340,000. They released 7 PS titles, 6 PC
titles and 4 N64 titles. Nothing big coming this year.
Those revs will be way down and will also be down for
the December qtr. but not as bad. If they overship in
the December qtr they run the risk of not managing
the qtr well in Jan to March and will end up taking a
hit at that time as was the case with MWY when they
shipped tons of Ready to Rumble during DC launch and then
shipped almost none 3 months later.
But that is
part of the reality of new console launches. It will
take some time to get enough consoles out there to get
the real benefits from great titles.
What is clear is that they wont make 1 billion in
revs this fiscal year which ends March 2001. 150
million this past qtr and less than that for the summer
qtr. Limited PS2 availability and lack of push for PC
and older console games as well as no newness there
will probably result in revs for the year being around
800 million at best.