At this point based on the linked chart
(close basis) wave 4 is an abc-X-abc and
if the close price on the 30 min chart
penetrates the last high (around 1202)
then we have can claim that probably
wave 4 has ended.
From Raptor board:In the 15 minute chart: Got the minor rally to peak out just under our target near 1192 and then pulled back as expected. From here though, the index found support near 1182 and then rallied into the rest of the day to a higher high and broke through resistance near 1196 as well as 1200. Which has bullish implications. The move up has formed a clear parallel rising channel as seen in purple and there is a clear 5 wave pattern within the channel as well which looks complete. The wave structure appears bullish as wave 4 down does not dip below the peak of wave 1 up. However, if you'll notice in the other indexes, the wave structure has a lot of overlap, so it is unlikey that one index here will take off without the others in a bullish trend. Regardless, in the short term, the rally looks complete given that stochastcis are very overbought, the 5 wave structure looks complete and it is assumed that the index tagged the upper boundary of it's up channel since the other two did as well. There is likely limited upside and the index can be seen to decline from the open or soon after with a peak at no higher than resistance near 1216.
On the hourly chart: In addition to the above, stochastics are overbought and ready to turn for down suggesting that upside is limited as well here, further support the pullback scenario. There is potential support near 1192 which is also the site of the lower channel line. A move below this is bearish and could easily test at least 1182, but most likely test the lows near 1165.
On the daily chart: The index has formed a downward blue parallel channel. Thus, the trend remains down longer term until the upper channel line near 1220 is broken. The previous falling wedge pattern was not clean and Monday's drop back below the upper wedge line invalidates the pattern and the break. Additional strong resistance near 1225 and very strong resistance near 1240. Index has tested the 1168 lows for a possible double bottom. Stochastics are falling which favors the downside, but they have crossed for up before reaching oversold. They are neutral here. Major support is near 1168 and then 1150.
On the weekly chart: On the weekly, potential bullish wedge in purple can be seen more clearly. A move down through major support at 1150 could negate this pattern and lead to a test of the lows near 1081 where next major support lies. Wekkly stochastics are oversold and suggest that downside is limited, but all daily evidence points to more down, so there might be one more down flush before this indicator can turn up out of oversold. Currently, the favored scenario is for the index to bottom somewhere near the 1150 or 1168 area unless 1150 is broken for down. Then we'll test the lows near 1181 or even find a new low at the declining blue trend line now near 1040.
For Friday, the bias is for the index to pullback either from the open or soon after and from no higher than 1216. Watch for possible support on the decline near 1188 and then 1182. A move below 188 breaks the trend, however, and suggests a run back towards the lows.
sounds like a rising wedge, which is bearish