If I'm not mistaken, you had mentioned on another post that there were potentially 2 other interested parties.
Well, it's playing out just as you've outlined ~ a spot-on speculation or you've the front-row seat.
Much appreciated either-way and please keep us posted on latest development.
It's still too cheap to sell at $18.50 (especially if a price war catches on) and I would have prefered if TDG comes in with a stock-deal say at $23~$25 per share. May be PCP & TGI aren't as good fit as TDG and additionally, TDG can use its (high price/high PE) shares #$%$
"If I'm not mistaken, you.."
Actually that was me.
In any event, a stock deal is extremely unlikely here. The company was shopped to potential strategic buyers and they expressed little interest. Furthermore, a new proposal must be a clearly superior offer to break the present agreement with Greenbriar. A stock deal will always have uncertainties due to fluctuations in the value of the acquiror's stock.
You mentioned in another post a deal with EDAC insiders with Greenbriar that could be a hindrance to new bidders. If you are referring to the tender and voting agreement than that is not true - the agreement expires if the Board accepts a superior offer.
If you are referring to some secret agreement between Pagano and Greenbriar than I can't help you there. Note, however, that Pagano stands to make $7.5 million if the deal is completed just from "above board" payments (assuming he is let go by Greenbriar). That same deal would also work with a different buyer (actually a bit more with a higher buyout price).
Pagano and the board was facing 3 bidders, all at a similar price, and they decided to go with the offer that was most likely to be consumated. Greenbriar has committed equity financing - no need to go to the debt markets. If MidOcean was a prior bidder, they may not have had the partnership with the pension fund lined up yet, so the financing was less certain. Pagano will make big money no matter who buys them, it was in his interest to make sure it goes smoothly.