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Columbia Sportswear Company Message Board

  • bartpj bartpj Dec 18, 2002 9:35 AM Flag

    Tons of inventory at Kohl's

    There's mountains of COLM inventory at Kohl's stores. Look for a buyback of major proportions soon for COLM. Stock is headed to low $30's soon. Short as much as you can get your hands on.

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    • Sure, Santa rally. I went long MMM calls and made a small profit.

    • "What do you mean, more than 1 position? I entered twice."

      Yes, that would be more than one position. I don't like to buy my positions very close together, adding in this case only on a significant move (>$2), so I might end up short at $46, $44 and $42, OR $46 and $49, all looking to cover on the left shoulder at 40??

      I can't tell if late Monday or Tuesday will be good to short; you think there will be a run up on light preholiday volume?


    • What do you mean, more than 1 position? I entered twice. Anyway, good opportunity to short is late Monday or Tuesday, not today, even though it is up on light volume.

    • fmat and amit:

      I don't want to go too far into the apparel question because for me it's just a sidebar. I do think that apparel is one of the toughest businesses to be in, just brutal. You're going up against that whole list of apparel names (Ralph Lauren, etc.) and it is tough. Eddie Bauer used to be a pretty good gear name, then sought to expand into apparel and is no longer a gear brand and not much of an apparel name.

      I think IBD had a pretty good article yesterday or the day before: "don't dilute the brand."

      In any event, I think of Tommy Lee Jones in "The Fugitive" when Harrison Ford in the tunnel is screaming, "I didn't kill my wife. I didn't kill my wife." And Tommy says, "I don't care."

      As for this or any stock, all I'm looking at is the technical position of the stock, where it's been, how it got here, what the volume and the velocity of the move has been.

      If we are seeing a turn here, it may form the left shoulder of a familiar pattern, and trade down to the 50 dma. That would be the first sign.

      Amit, you've already got more than one position (short) in this name? I'm not that anxious; I'm just setting up a small tent at the edge of the desert. I would add a slice at 49 (or at 43--depending on the nature of the fall), but for now I've settled the camels, built a little fire and am boiling some tea.


    • You are right, longs have made some money now it is time for the shorts to make some money.

      Mucho overheado resistance...

      Bull, btw my average short price is around $46 and some change, and I am slightly in the black. But that is neither here or there, what I am interested in is $40-

      Best regards guys

    • >I don't think we disagree.

      Now that you have expanded your thought, I don't think we disagree very much, either.

      But I think Columbia's "mainstreamness" (new word I just coined) is more of a strength than a weakness. I think there is an "apparel" niche and a "gear" niche, if you will, with some crossover between the two. I think Columbia is one of, maybe even THE, dominant name in the apparel niche. And this more mainstream market is larger than the extreme gear market. They are more mall strollers and 4X4 drivers than mountain climbers.

      Not to mention that I think Columbia's share of that apparel market is larger, while the extreme market is a bit more fragmented among several brands, as you suggested.

      I think Columbia can continue to do very well if it can hold on to its grip in the apparel niche. If it can manage to make more inroads into the gear niche and not spread itself too thin in doing so, that will just be gravy.

      That all said, I think both longs and shorts can do well with this stock. Even the recent rise has been of the "three steps forward, two steps back" variety. (Which is better than two steps forward and three back that has been more typical of the overall market the last couple of years.)

      COLM's overall trend has been up, but with plenty of opportunities to trade in and out, buy on dips and/or make money on the short side. I think if you play it right, this is one stock that can make everyone happy.

    • fmat:

      Don't get me wrong, I have a closet (actually a couple, counting the kids') full of outdoor gear: fleece, outer shells, shorts, shirts, cargo pants, yada yada yada, and probably 45% of it is Columbia. I like the stuff.

      <<I think Columbia is most certainly a brand, and one that is more mainstream than North Face and far far more than Mountain Hardwear>>

      I agree, Columbia is much more "mainstream" than the brands I was discussing, and therein lies its weakness. When you see North Face, Mountain Hardware, REI, Nike's ATG stuff (not its apparel stuff), etc., you think "gear."

      But when you see Columbia stuff, even the same kinds of stuff (micro poly fleece tops, for example), you think "apparel." The former are gear brands which conjure up extreme sports such as ice climbing and have a sense of "survival." Columbia conjures up the sense of apparel, malls, driving 4X4's along beltways to get to the relative's house. The closest Columbia comes to gear is when they give the stuff away to sports and news centers who are covering the Olympics or alpine sports (and who don't look too athletic in them: think the Michelin Man).

      Gear is the brand, apparel is the name. Again, the issue will come (is coming now) soon when the gear brands start to discount heavily to move product in general retail and outlets, the "names" will be squeezed.

      Simple example: I'm out at a ski shop and I see two bins of goretex shells (retail priced at $300, bin priced at $135), one of Columbia and one of Helly Hansen. I'm going to buy the Helly Hansen, because it's gear.

      Yes, Columbia is expanding beyond gear, it's already beyond gear (never was "gear" in the hardcore sense).

      I don't think we disagree.


    • Im seeing the same thing, wondering why the market is not.Like they say "the difference between perception and reality is opportunity" although in the present reality is perception question is for how long.Insiders see the handwriting on the wall as always, as the fundies become bagholders."Interesting times"

      • 1 Reply to sbrokerman
      • <Im seeing the same thing, wondering why the market is not.>

        From what Greenberg reports, this stock has been run up purely as a technical play. Once it broke out, the mulititude of techincal traders saw it on their screens and jumped on. The initial breakout was based on abnormally cold weather, the thought that people would buy more parkas because it's cold out.

        Because of the technical momentum, it may still run higher. But eventually, the fundamentals will pull it back down, because the cold weather effect is temporal.

        I shorted yesterday and will short more if it continues to climb.

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