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Columbia Sportswear Company Message Board

  • snddk snddk Nov 4, 2004 7:49 PM Flag

    Hit the trend line and bounced

    Looks to me that this hit the bottom of the 5 yr trend line and bounced and runs to all time high. Considering some of the numbers from the retailers today as well as the overall markets indicating a possible breakout of the the downtrend, then if COLM can continue to churn out the numbers which they have been able to average then a run to $80+ is not out of the question, with an announcement of a stock split being tossed in...jmo.

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    • Did yuo see how many stocks the director sold last mounth about 170K shares. I don�t think its a good sign

      • 1 Reply to helmuth55
      • Actually, it looks as if since Nov. insiders have sold well in excess of 170k shares. Insider holdings are reported as over 60%, it wouldn't be surprising to see insiders keep selling. Also, some would argue that stocks with insider holding above 50% tend to constrain the growth in the stock price. Couple the high insider holding percentage and seeing that the insider selling has been essentially limited to two sources and at a price near the 52 week high it does not throw a red flag up. Stocks like CHS use to have high insdier holding percentages as well, three and four years ago people were concerned with the insider selling there too, the stock went on to make triple digit gains in the next several months.

        But keeping an eye on just the technical aspect, a long base has formed and it could be argued that this takes the form of an extended "cup with handle" pattern. I think COLM has seen the break above resistance on high volume and has since pulled back on decreasing volume. At this time, it would appear to me that if the next move above the previous high comes on above average volume, it would be reasonable to expect the stock price to press high and mark new highs without seeing a pullback below current levels. Just my opinion on the technical side of things.

        Fundamentally, if they can maintain the current double digit growth rate in sales and as well as maintain the current margins, well, again it's my opinion that the stock moves higher.

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