SNH could buy FVE and combine it with their Taxable REIT Subsidiary (TRS) and capture 100% of the upside as occupancy improves. It made no sense for them to do it in a declining market with a housing headwind. It makes more sense now with the start of a housing tailwind and the beginning of improving occupancy.
I would still like to see VTR buy SNH. Time for bigger consolidation to start in this market. VTR needs big acquisitions to move the needle.
FVE trades at such a discount to its asset value, the upside for a buyer is incredible. A buyer would eliminate the Mackey Discount and capture great upside.
Also, VTR trades at a much better multiple than SNH because investors like VTR management. VTR has delivered 22% compounded annual growth to shareholders over the last 10 years. Not many companies can show that performance for shareholders.
I have a fealing we would all go for a VTRs offer of stock for shares.... The question will be when the turn comes.... McKay hopefully is working on digesting and profitability and the ability to be accretive .... at 85,86,87% occupancy there should be enough meat on the bones or a good meal... So far McKay has.nt delivered. We may in deed need to shop Fve ourselves.. We obviously have an opening with many disappointed shareholders.
our credit facity of 150 million was based on 1549 units... so bank adjusted value at $96,000 a unit.. in 2007 which is probably quite convervative.. almost at 2007 values.. conservative value in todays market probably $125-$137,000 per unit...
Fve owned and operated units #2349 X 125,000 or 137,000
293 million or 321 million
value per share
pretty conservative figuires