Seems like they have at least 100 million to play with here. Does it seem likely to you that the 12% will ever see a full coupon payment? Doesn't seem likely to me. A possible scenario appears to be using cash to retire 100 mil of the 12% and a convert of 150-170 to retire the rest. The pot is boiling on these types of issues and the timing of this team in the past has been good. Also, I must say that it doesn't make much sense over the long term for anyone to be in this business on a regional basis unless they utilize the talents of another bigger organization to manage towers. Hell, elimination of the G&A at this company alone would push them to positive free cash flow right now. The question is...at what price will Bernstein sell? I would say the moment that CCI and AMT stock moves past the 10-12 range you could see a stock offer soon after.
Certainly if there is a convert offer the den of thieves that underwrites it will pump and pump and $5-$7 would seem quite easy. The new cashflow profile wouldn't hurt either.
Don't know much about how the Bonds work except that lower interest Rates is very good for refi, you would think if interest rates drop again in July this would be a very good window of opportunity to do this
Yes on each and every count ... you are calling this almost identically to the way I also see it ... this doesn't mean we are right, but certainly the path we see is absolutely logical and certainly open to them ... I do think it is the endgame. No need even to worry about the 10% if that's the case ... that will be someone else's problem.
Timing of course is the thing. If one is a longtermer then no worries. On the other hand Bernstein controls this thing by virtue of super voting shares. The simple fact that they were historically site development people put them behind the curve in realizing the need to downsize that area...they were attached to the business. Hence we find ourselves last of the three public survivors to organically reach free cash- albeit possibly much sooner from debt restructuring.
The dog days of Summer are upon us...might be a bit frustrating ...i'm not sure it is straight up from here. Then again..how much sense does it make to have this cash burning a hole in your pocket at a cost of 12%? What is your thinking of their timing of a move on the 12 percenters? I mean when that happens any resistance at $4.90 that the tech gnomes are pinpointing will be taken out post haste.