Iagree with the theory that there may be some overlapping and some funds may be concerned ie sell off..would not the insiders who have been on a buying spree of late ,not have a better handle on this ,more so than the fund managers.
There has been some buying by Permit capital in addition to its swapping of bonds for stock. There has NOT been any buying by officers since 2002. All these form 4's you are seeing are stock options ...and some pretty generous ones with in the money provisions. There isn't much reason for this to remain a public company. I'd think that in 05 with another upleg in the tower stocks that AMT or someone else would be a buyer of this thing when the last of the 101/4's are retired. Would be nice to have a stock for stock deal. Permit capital has been pretty aggressive buying around the 4-4.5 area. As cheaply as he bought the bonds he's swapping it says a lot that he likes more of the common at these prices. The point and figure boys say 9 is the target. I don't buy that stuff but it can set the tone for speculation. Pretty volatile issue and a nice little shakout correction here may turn back around after a good conference call. Bottom line- limited capex and a real accumulation of free cash flow as there a lot of additional revenue will go directly to the bottom line. I'm not sure it is worth 9 at all...but the perception that there will be real positive cash flow and no debt amortizatin for four years is a strong plus. Takeover speculation can't be dismissed either. Hope it tanks back down around 3.5.
It appears that our seller ("Amalgamated Widget L.P.") revealed its true colors by filing an ammended SC 13G/A after the market closed on Friday (2/13). The prior post, which mentioned "Amalgamated" is an alias for one of the Bass Family's partnerships, is indeed correct.
The positive portion of Amalgamated's filing is that it disclosed ownership of 0 shares, which means the abnormal supply of stock in the marketplace has been absorbed. However, I remain skeptical, near term, because of institutions respect for the Bass Family (considered the smartest of smart money). Once the institutional holders realize (some probably already have) that the Bass Family feels there is no potential, further upside in the stock, it could cause them to re-evaluate their investment thesis and weigh the risk of holding an unrealized gain. Then again, Worley's willingness to convert his debt holdings to equity and make open market purchases might mitigate the risk of not following the "smart money" indicator.
Together with American Tower's earnings on Wednesday, this week should be interesting.
Of course this is all speculation on the overlapping tower matter between AWE and Cingular but:
Aren't those tower leases structured into multi-year agreements with escalator clauses? Also consider that some of those towers could have AWE and Cingular equipment co-located on the same tower. New next generation applications like streaming video requires more towers not less if one is to take advantage of third generation WCDMA which Cingular and AWE both seem to be moving towards.