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Chiquita Brands International Inc. Message Board

  • Emel_ Emel_ May 12, 2006 8:18 PM Flag

    Are we at 50 yet?

    Ok...maybe a little premature with that comment. I did read all the replies since I originally posted and got as expected; the usually dribble for a short permeated beaten down board. A few Chiquita fans too, but for the most part this board is for the shorts.

    I also read the Motley Fool article and agree with them in principle. Some of the same reasons I found CQB attractive. It is being priced as if the banana business is slowly dying, which I disagree with.

    (I also like CQB over FDP too. I would like to add another reason: CQB owns its name. FDP leases its name from Del Monte.)

    I believe CQB and FDP has been met with a worst case scenario of events over the past year. Fuel raging higher, hurricanes, pressure on pricing, Euro tariffs, plus CQB throws in a overpriced (my opinion) and badly timed buyout of FE.

    And yet CQB is still profitable. Probably will make 75 cents to a dollar this year. And I believe this a trough year. Reasons?

    Fuel won't abate, but it will not continue to rise so rapidly. Euro tariffs have a small chance of being lowered next year. And if not, then at least they're priced in fixed Euros per tonnage. Euros will depreciate and tonnage will appreciate over the years, thus net lowering the impact.

    Hurricanes come and go...hopefully go.

    Pricing will improve.

    And FE purchase has already been sapped from Chiquita shareholders of last year.

    If any of those above factors abate or reverse then CQB will do fine.

    That being said....My predicted range of 12-50 still stands. I have 10% of my portfolio in CQB right now and might consider at some point and time doubling that.

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    • Mr. Sop thanks for your knowledgeable response. Like I said, it was something I heard. You're probably right, it's not the norm, but there has to be a point when even a large institution will cut & run,,they need to save face if they believe a stock is going to tank, and right now CQB is starting to get a little scary.,,Thanks again.

    • Selling now would be out of the norm for an institution but in banana land anything is possible Mr. Dekoninck1. I am seeing accumulation when I peek at Level 2. Who knows banana land things are slightly....well, bananas.

      From a technical standpoint if CQB breaks support (somewhere around this pps level - say $13.40) the next stop would be $10. After that only the man upstairs (or someone more knowledgable than I) would know.....


    • Maybe some truth to your statement, I heard something very similiar but it was 2 institutions who plan to bail. If it's any of the Top 3-5 this baby will go way below $10.00. Than others will follow suit. That will suck!!!

    • Look out , major seeling soon. A little bird told me something. A major fund is going to dump soon and this will go under 10. I sold all my shares a soon as it broke 19.00. See you all under 10.

    • Mr. Rainforest

      Evidently the market just rolled over again - when I last checked CQB was up on over 700,000 down on the next 200K or so.

      Quality post sir, most everything I follow is getting hammered. The value plays I follow are all even better values no doubt. The small caps, don't even want to talk about those. The red is getting old. GLA


    • Yes there is the bigger market out there.

      But what about this:

      Oil is down.
      The dollar is down.

      Since oil is denominated in dollars that means oil just got really cheap for the Europeans. And the Chinese who peg to the dollar are going to miss out.

      As I said the macros are little hard to fathom.

      I am switching to HOLD. I never really know where pps is going. But know I really really don't know where it is going. I am going to pull the plug quickly if it moves against me.


    • -Have longs finally starting to get some support?

      We've had a couple of real downers in the Stock market.

      Today, the market started as a real downer, with everything falling; but large cap stocks climbed out of the celler, and were up 47 points or so at the close.

      -Small caps didn't follow, and at the end of the day, small caps were still lower.

      -Tomorrow should be up for small caps, if this is the beginning of a turnaround-you know- the old- generals lead, and the privates follow.

      No guarantees (of course).

    • Brb, I didn't look too close today but when I did peek Level II looked about like it did Friday. This renewed short selling is setting a floor under this stock as each new wave is driving pps down less and less. There is a buyer on the other end accumulating CQB IMO.

      Point and figure shows historical major resistance around this pps. While I'll not comment on whether or not CQB is fairly valued at this level events are lining up that could result in short term pps volatility.

      Look for banana guidance soon, which should be the next major news event.


    • What it all came down to was a lot of sound and fury for a 5 cent drop. So much happening on the macro-side, it makes it hard to predict where pps is going.

      Have the longs finally gotten some support? Stay tuned...


    • You crack me up, check the thread you came out swinging with the language and the sharp back-talk, another insider with nothing to say... You make everyone laugh!!!

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