% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Chiquita Brands International Inc. Message Board

  • seattle.stew seattle.stew Feb 2, 2011 1:59 AM Flag

    CQB in February

    We seem to be continuing with the pattern of moving up on high volume and retracing part of the gains on low volume. Everyone understands that this is generally a good trend for a stock.

    I think it's useful to look at FDP and DOLE when trying to figure out long-term trends. On a given day or week, these stocks can diverge. But, if you look over a period of 3 months, 6 months and longer, they follow the same pattern.

    CQB has a reasonably good base forming in the 15's, and we could make another foray into the 16's this week. We are not completely dependent upon the broad markets, but not divorced from them, either. Every analyst on the street is trying to call the correction, and they do so regularly at each hiccup. Then, the market goes up the next day and they disappear. I guess that's not unlike this board. Ha ha.

    Anyway, the Asian markets are up sharply at the moment, with the Nikkei rising almost 2%. So, the US markets have a chance of having a good Wednesday.

    Consolidation in the commodity and food sectors have also helped the fresh produce stocks. However, the Sara Lee deal is going sideways at the moment. I think if that one gets resurrected, it will be a shot in the arm, as well. JMO

    I don't make recommendations to anyone to buy or sell a stock, even to my close friends. I make educated guesses, but I can't control the variables that make for a stock market. I indicate my Long-Term Sentiment as "Buy", because it is my personal belief that CQB will trade closer to $20 in the future. How long out? Unless there is a buyout offer, I would expect it to take at least 6 months and possibly a year. Shorter term, over a 3 month horizon, I can see the stock trading up to the 17's or more. These are just opinions, though.

    Do your own DD and do what you want. Short it, for all I care. Nobody on a Yahoo board can impact a NYSE stock no matter what they do, because the big money could care less about Yahoo or any message boards.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Checking out the stock for a ride at least into earnings. I note that the price of bananas is up 10% in the last week or so in the supermarket. On the other side, Australian flooding didn't seem to do much to coal stocks in China, so not sure of impact on banana prices.

      • 1 Reply to e.litvak
      • I think the impact of the AU crop damage will not have a significant macro effect on pricing, but supplies there will be devastated. If they allow imports from Philippines, it will affect Asian pricing. This remains to be seen.

        Prices in this hemisphere have risen due to supply constraints, and this is help in CQB and others. You do need to be careful to not equate supermarket pricing to whatever the distributor is getting, however. At the retail level, they price according to what they believe is in their best interest. A 10% increase from the distributor could result in a 10% increase at retail, or none at all.

        Bananas are so ubiquitous, that shoppers tend to know the price by memory and may use this as a proxy for how good a value they believe they are getting at a store. It's kind of like milk, bread, and eggs. If you are higher than your competition in those categories, shoppers will notice.

        I think we are going to consolidate in the 16's for a while, unless we get a significant market correction, in which case we could get dropped to the 15's. Otherwise, by the end of February I could see this stock going into the 17's. These are just guesses, of course. But, there does seem to be accumulation afoot.

    • I agree with your statement regarding big ben.

      BAC is looking good. Believe the big banks will be back strongly in the real estate lending & secutitizing those fixed rate loans. Be business as usual. Gets back to the almight $. They havn't learned anything from the past.

      My neop.ob up nicely today on approval to be listed on the AMEX. Nice 50% profit in 30days.

      Have a great week.

    • Your GB bet paid off. Congrats! I didn't have a dog in that fight, but was hoping for GB, in part because they are owned by the town rather than some elitist group. It's nice to see the "little guy" win sometimes. That, and I actually have not liked the Steelers for years. Big Ben is a knucklehead.

      BAC is also doing well, and CQB ain't too shabby. Volume in this stock is light today, though. We'll probably get our usual volume surge in the final half hour, but I still think we'll not even do 500k shares today. DOLE is taking a hit, presumably because they recently hit up against an all time high and triggers fingers got itchy. FDP is drifting flat to down on light volume. I'll be happy if we close green today, which may or may not happen. Slow days are rarely up days for this stock.

    • I think what is missing here, which is typical of these red herring posts, is the other half of the story. Ecuador supplies to all of the major fruit companies, as do several other countries. CQB buys according to price, availability, quality, and logistical requirements. Ecuador is not in a good location, being further from North American markets than any other supplier in the west. On the other hand, CQB has smartly spread their supply agreements around the world, so that they are protected from supply issues that normally arise due to weather conditions. There was plenty of crop damage this year, which has sent prices upward, and this actually works in favor of the marketers such as DOLE and CQB. It would be very helpful, and I think not too much to ask, if people would provide valid links when they mouth off about this kind of thing. Then again, it might kind of knock the legs out from the argument.

    • seattle.ste:

      I'm glad I didn't get the rest of my CQB sold.

      This announcement of cut in dutys by approx. $158 ton will be huge over next few yrs.

      One never knows what the future holds.

      Good luck with your investments.

      • 2 Replies to bookerone2000
      • Interesting to note here that while CQB is popping above $16 on heavy volume, DOLE is flat on normal to light volume and FDP is up only moderately on normal to light volume. I would expect the tariff situation to impact DOLE somewhat similarly to CQB, although their sourcing is a bit different, so that could be an oversimplification of the scenario. But, this makes me think that today's action in CQB is not much related to the EU tariff and more about the consolidation being complete. The last half hour is usually the most interesting in this stock. I don't expect to close over $16 today. But, a finish above around $15.85 would be meaningful, IMO. seattle.stew

      • Book, it will be interesting to see how the analysts react to the the tariff news. Of course, Latam had already won the WTO decision and the EU finally backed down from their absurd stance. But, the timing of the tariff reduction seemed in question. I don't know if this simply mirrors what was already agreed and represents a rubber stamp on existing agreements or if it actually changes something that was assumed in the stock price of CQB and others. Obviously, there has been a positive reaction, but that could simply be investors made re-aware of what is to come. Either way, there are going to be opportunities for CQB to increase volumes and improve margins as the tariffs phase out.

    • screw u