Do yourselves a favor.....go to the library and
read the latest Value Line report on CQB from last
If you're familiar with Value Line you'll know that
their comment about CQB is as negative as they ever
get: "We don't think Chiquita stock is acceptable for
Whoa! Usually they pull their
punches and say things like, "Conservative investors may
want to steer clear of these shares until there is
evidence of a turnaround".
Face it. The only thing
this company has going for it is that cute little
bimbo in the grass skirt. You're likely to have better
luck going to Las Vegas and betting on black or red.
flatline = dead money
CQB can struggle
along for years and avoid the creditors. But I would
not call this a successful strategy. CQB's potential
for an upturn rests with lobbying victories. However,
few folks understand that the current system which
limits imports into the EU also artificially props up
prices. If all barriers came down (don't worry, they
won't), market pricing could be a disaster. Couple that
with a weak euro, then these guys would be in a
There is simply too much fruit in the market and the
Big 3 have given away their leverage to obtain higher
pricing in the US with contract sales.
Everyone has their own system, no one can agree.
Sounds like the WTO will be very busy with lawyers,
consulatnts and economists for the next 2+ years.
does not publish contingent obligations in specific
locations. At 12/31/99, the had total contingencies related
to loan guarantees, etc. of $112mm. Plus, the
footnote for receivables states they have $63mm in grower
advances. That is a total of $175mm in financial
commitments to growers.
Leon, you're pretty
knowledgeable about DOL's sourcing and where they are getting
fruit from independent growers. Given the financial
disarray in Ecuador, some portion of these commitments
must be in Ecuador.
Latin American banana producers fight European
August 20, 2000 CNN
at: 1:15 PM EDT (1715 GMT)
(AP) -- Latin America's main banana-producing
countries have agreed to take a unified stand against the
most recent European proposals over the banana trade,
calling them restrictive and unfair.
Representatives from Costa Rica, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras,
Guatemala, Mexico, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Panama agreed at
a meeting here Friday to "look for alternatives" to
the European Union's tariff proposals, which
producers contend favor Caribbean and African nations, said
Panama's representative Joaquin Jacome.
European Union is being forced to change its banana import
rules by the World Trade Organization, which upheld
complaints from the United States and Latin American
countries that contended they were victims of
Nine countries against 71 ACP countries.
Who will be the winner?
Value banana inventory
at cost is pushing the losses forward.
the Dole's balance sheet do you find its financial
commitments in Ecuador?
otherwise they might have to book losses in the
event of an unexpected downturn in market pricing. But
I assume this valuation is subject to management
Leon, I know your views on Ecuador, but DOL will remain
an exporter and they have a very large financial
commitment there in the form of port facilities, farms and
grower advances. I guarantee you that CQB will source
fruit from Ecuador in the future (via ReyBanPac).
Everyone loses money in the second half of the year
regardless of fruit source.
in investment. Most analyst up grade and down
grade after the fact. When I made hundreds of thousands
of $$$ on Oracle....all the analyst were holding or
selling....most all downgraded at that time....I jumped....I won.
When EDS had 20 out of 21 anayst rating a buy I sold.
One week later after 4 upgrades EDS dropped from $70
to $31. I bought that week and made $125,000 months
later...while people like Valueline were wiping there ass with
Bottom line...go with name,
product, book value, and bad marketindustry
conditions....and most important go where no one else is!!!! If you
don't love making money than invest in Microsoft,
Nokia, XRX, Lucent, UIS, etc, etc..(those that Value
Line had originally high marks in).
And that my friend is what makes a market!
Willing buyers and willing sellers!Winners and losers. Do
you listen to your stockbroker? Do you think it is
wise to use investment advisors? Do we think Chiquita
is out of the woods? No.
Who said we were
conservative investors? It is being bought on educated
speculation to be a turn around. Five to seven years from now
what do you think the Value-Line will say? Will you
buy it then?
This is not a prudent investment
and we are not managing corporate retirement funds.
We know that. We are buying the risk. We are also
buying the rights to the reward if we are right about
the turn around.I am the first to admit...this baby
is flatlined. The cpr will be breaking back into
Europe. Then wacth this stock jump!
I purchased at
these levels, and frankly so far my money has been as
safe as if it were in a bank.Can you say that about
Vegas? I believe there is little down side risk. Grab
that value line and look at the book value.This is our
alturnitive to IPO dotcoms for high returns. Got any of
those? Gosh I hope not. We just aren't THAT
If you had listened to the Value-Line you might have
missed out on such bargins as Cataplliar Tractor,
Chrysler, Bank of America, International Harvestor
(Navastar), which all sold for under $5 and $10 per share.
This is an investment stratagy we. Thanks for your
And Bigfoot dances in the forest
on the up tick day chanting "Bolongo! Bolongo!
Bolongo! Bolongo! Bolongo!"
CQB's fixed assets have limited or no market
value. Do you want some banana farms in Central America
or some 43' refrigerated containers? Don't judge CQB
on book value, but rather on the potential to
generate TRUE free cash flow not some "adjusted" EBITDA
number. Cash flow is dismal. By the way, if you want to
judge the book value of any company, you need to look
at their assumptions for depreciable lives. Check
out CQB's assumptions for ships and containers and
compare versus industry standards.