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iShares Silver Trust Message Board

  • dowiehowie dowiehowie Jan 27, 2011 11:48 PM Flag

    Shortages of 100 toz bars

    For those who deny silver shortages, read this article. I want to make a few points clearer:

    - there is an organized attempt to cover up shortages, notice how difficult it is for a major dealer himself to get a straight answer for the reason of shortages, he has to dig and come up with the most possible reason, all the refineries and manufacturers cannot have processing problems at the same time , the only reason common to all has to be lack of silver. Why so many online dealers show no 100-oz bars in stock or long delays? Mysteriously, some like Apmex show them in stock but some report the bars are not actually shipped when ordered and have to wait! Clearly, many people in the business have been told to shut up and keep quiet.

    - there is little buying of 100 toz bars among the general public, so why are the shortages? esp. when their premiums jumped up as soon as the silver went down. Clearly, some big money is taking silver off the market, and 100 toz bars are the early signs of big shortages to come

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    • There can be short-term differences between ETF and manufacture supply-demand. It is totally possible.

    • why did you imply those points came from the article ??

      "Most possible"...that means it is an opinion, based on my reading anyway.

      If they are out of 100 oz chocolate you assume chocolate is rare and in short supply...yikes, it is !

      We should base our currency on the Chocolate Standard...what a tasty solution that would be

    • clearly :) Must be, trust me :)

      What I clearly see, if you are posting opinions offered by those who fiat money is made selling pm as investments.

      Opinions are OK, but you are not being transparent and post them like facts...that is disengenious imo.

    • With a billion more people than the US, China will drain the worlds silver supply in no time.

      Gold Bar Premiums At 17-Year High In Hong Kong

      "...People's Bank of China adviser Xia Bin told the Economic Information Daily today that China should steadily increase its holdings of gold, silver and other precious metals. In an interview with the paper Xia said that “holdings of gold and silver can help establish the yuan as an international currency by increasing China's "final payment capacity." He advised buying precious metals on the dips and while gold and silver are marginally lower today, the remarks are another long term positive for the gold market..."

      "...The reference to silver was important as it marks the first time in modern times that a central bank advisor or official has spoken about diversifying currency reserves into silver. It shows how the Chinese view silver as money rather than as simply a commodity to be consumed. Indeed, the Chinese like most of the world, used silver as currency for most of their history.

      The comments may signal the start of a growing shift from seeing silver purely as an industrial commodity to seeing silver more like gold – as both an industrial commodity but more importantly as a store of value and as money. As Milton Friedman pointed out, the major monetary metal throughout history was silver, rather than gold..."

    • Most people only think of silver as an investment like gold, but silver actually has many industrial usages. I am not surprised about the shortage at all. As China becomes the largest manufacture base for electronics, its silver usage is increasing dramatically. And Chinese do not like to do things openly, so I am also not surprised that the silver orders are going through the roof, but the silver bar manufactures were told to keep their mouths thightly shut.

    • I waited 3 months after paying for my monster boxes of silver American Eagles.

    • sweete! with your naive comments showing you are a sucker run away from PMs as fast as you can and do not even think about PMs, get yourself an MP3 player and listen to some crap instead

    • I ordered 100 oz bar 3 weeks ago and still haven't received my order. they have a cheaper price then when I purchased my order and called them to see if they lower my invoice since I haven't received my order. they said I can't do that. wtf. I want my fiat or my bar.

    • A shortage of 100-oz silver bars is developing in the US, and presently buying, while strong, is not what I would call robust . When buying picks up, the shortage will be on us.

      As for orders for new silver bars, Academy Corp’s popular stackable 100-oz bars are two months out; JM bars are a month out; Royal Canadian Mint 100s are “two weeks out;” Sunshine Minting 100-oz silver bars are “not on the horizon.” Buy order for 100s are picking on this price decline. If buying continues, dealer vaults will be emptied. Then buyers will have to wait weeks or months before receiving delivery of their bars.

      Already, premiums are climbing on 100s, which happens as demand out paces supply. Higher premiums are a natural “allocation process” in this market.

      In the secondary market, where investors sell when they need to convert bullion to cash, premiums also are rising, and 100-oz silver bars are scarce on the inter-dealer networks. Small dealers, which make up the networks, usually are quick to offer 100s when they come in “across the counter.” That 100s are not offered on the networks is evidence that 100s are not being sold in quantity and that when they are sold they are quickly purchased by the smaller dealers’ clients.

      Another sign of the scarcity (soon to be a shortage?) of 100-oz silver bars is a rising premium on junk silver coins (pre-1965 circulated 90% silver coins). Because many dealers do not have or cannot get in a timely manner 100-oz silver bars, buyers are switching to junk silver coins, which are more readily available. As the demand for 90% coins has increased, so has the premium, a normal function of the junk silver coin market.

      What’s next?

      If silver sees a further price drop from here, I believe that buying will be so strong that existing inventories of silver bars (and other silver bullion products) will last only a few days (yes, days). Then buyers will have to wait on delivery of newly-manufactured bars, which, as noted above are weeks or months out. Additionally, premiums on all silver bullion products will increase, thereby somewhat negating any lower prices.

    • At APMEX you can load up on 100 oz bars until the wheels fall off on the wheelbarrow. So where is this shortage you are talking about??? JM bars are available all over the place. The premium has gone up a bit, from $.80 to $1.10, but that is hardly indicative of a major supply issue.

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