Look at silver suddenly spiking higher.
Here was the tell that it would happen:
1) Extreme4Reality has increased his bashing post frequency dramatically.
- Extreme is most active at silver bottoms, not at silver tops.
- Extreme posted his chart about 1,000 times this morning. That was the tell.
2) Lots of new, amateur shorts have shown up, agreeing with Extreme.
- This is an indication that they are late-to-the-party shorts.
- They don't know Extreme's record of Extreme Failure at predicting silver.
- These amateurs are always late, and on the wrong side of the trade.
I've got a different tell that says the move higher in everything will fail by the end of the day. And when I run it past my gut, it confirms.
But it will be too late for Extreme. He's already likely covering his short from the temporary bottom at about a 3% loss in two days, LOL!
Exactly. That last spike was probably just amateur short covering, before another leg down (which I would presume to be a final leg down). Agree with the premise of the original post. Too many new shorts still on the board. Some will make a bit of money, many won't. It all comes down to trading horizon and timing I suppose.
Absolutely not. Try rereading my post.
I'm speaking to a a kind of makeshift sentiment indicator. That is it. The activity on the board is more representative of the majority that lose money in the markets. It gets excited at tops and pessimistic at the bottom.
Yahoo! boards make great contrarian indicators, but you have to read them with an understanding of recent price movements, headlines and fundamental economic conditions too. On the latter of the 3, the funny thing about Extreme is that he completely ignores the Dollar, Money Supply, Unsustainable Debt, etc., and still tries to draw a simplistic connection to Oil, with no consideration for geo-political risks.
While you are generally right about the scourge of the board in your post, I'm not so sure that spike on the 1-minute chart will hold.. It could be a head-fake higher, before the next move down. We'll have to wait and see.