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Echelon Corporation (ELON) Message Board

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  • johnmr12 johnmr12 Mar 4, 2012 3:24 PM Flag

    Piper analyst is a MORON

    Charlie, I know we don't like it when someone like dolphin downplays our little gem here, and I really don't believe that his $3 target is going to happen (if it hits $3, it will be because something catastrophic has occurred, and you won't want it at $3.)But, no matter how you spin this upgrade, dolphin is right on the money. To suggest that Echelon will generate 1.2 BILLION in revenue in Brazil alone is insane. It's so insane in fact, I truly believe that Piper has a client that wants out, and the upgrade gave that client a spike. Did you notice how it traded down right from the open? That certainly wasn't shorting, not at this price. If we can get 15 million meters in Brazil over the next decade, and if we can make $40 a unit, we should all be jumping for joy. I know I will be.

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    • "... if it hits $3, it will be because something catastrophic has occurred, and you won't want it at $3.) ..."

      I actually said $3's ... based on my current understanding of revenue expectations in FY'12 and FY'13, I'd start averaging down in the _high_ $3's. Again, I understand that any big contract may come in between and you guys will be back in the $7's within a week or two. I get that, and I take that risk of missing out.

      However, I do not see the need of "something catastrophic" that ELON falls into the $3's. IMO, ELON still enjoys much "goodwill" of the investor communitity for potential and that keeps the P/S in the $5's. The market solidifies and starts to valuate ELON based on mid-term (2 years) and not on long-term potential anymore. A missed quarter and a warning that ELON won't achieve profitability in FY'12 (which is quite realistic, I think) and the high $3's are in sight. Earnings expectations for the next two years would even justify $3.

    • Per link Piper was using revenue of $35 per meter. I guess that must include add-ons like concentrators, software, etc.

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