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Buckeye Partners, L.P. Message Board

  • philippians4and13 philippians4and13 Jun 26, 2007 3:34 PM Flag

    Historical BPL and KMR performance in summer


    Here is an excerpt from my post at KMR, whose main insider is the well-regarded Richard Kinder. Does anyone know how BPL's total return tends to be during summer and until end of October?

    Just bought some more KMR last week. IMHO, it is likely to be an excellent summer stock this year. Consider:

    1. For the time frames 6/14/03 through 10/30/03, 6/15/04 through 10/30/04, 6/15/15 through 10/28/05, and 6/15/06 through 10/30/06 KMR's total returns (according to Yahoo Finance) during those times were, respectively, 6.15%, 16.83%, 9.78%, and 5.13%. These returns are NOT annualized. So you can see that, historically, KMR is a nice stock to own in the summer.

    2. This has logic as well as historical support: If the overall stock market tends to be down or sideways during the summer and early fall, an income stock like KMR will look better relative to the overall market.

    3. Test the logic on a stock like EEQ, which is similar to KMR and gives stock dividends that may appeal to equity investors who don't need cash dividends and thus normally are in the overall stock market (IOO, VTSMX, SPY, etc.) instead of in income-producing stocks. If the logic is true, EEQ should do well in the summer, also.

    Test results, per Yahoo Finance, are that EEQ has a total return during the time frames described in point 1 above of 6.44%, 8.89%, negative 3.42%, and 20.23%. So the test confirms the logic.

    4. I'm not as smart about as Richard Kinder or Parker Shaper. What are they doing? RK and Shaper each bought a significant position 6/11/07. David Kinder bought 6/12 and KMR officer James Street bought 6/11/07.

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