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Thor Industries Inc. Message Board

  • bearofbleecker bearofbleecker Mar 19, 2005 1:16 PM Flag

    Why I'm short here.

    However well this stock has performed in the past,consider:
    (1) The declining sales of large SUV's seems to indicate that consumers finally are concerned about fuel prices. (not just $2 gas, but the possibility of $3 gas?)
    (2) The market, which assumed that $40-a-barrel oil was a temporary blip, now seems to accept that $50-a-barrel-oil may be here to stay.
    (3)WGO's recent glum report. (I'm not an expert here, but it seems that their extensive line of diesel-powered models should have made them less vulnerable to higher fuel costs.
    (4)Rising interest rates will not only make it more expensive to finance RV's, but will end the lower mortgage rates and the refi's which fuel a lot of discretionary spending.
    (5)Rising material costs (e.g. steel, aluminum) will cut into profits if the manufacturers are unable to raise prices.
    Given this environment, it's hard to see what would make the RV stocks perform well here.

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