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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

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  • hotpanera2 hotpanera2 Jun 15, 2005 5:52 PM Flag

    Short Interest

    Not that many here -- myself included -- predicted this kind of rise, but some reasons to justify it include:

    1. The 10-year around 4% and fully taxable federally, makes SJT's yield, even at these prices, attractive in comparison. If the 10-year were at 5.5% SJT's distributions would be less attractive at this price and we'd be lower;

    2. There is an increasingly held series of views that SJT has longer than published reserves, that the NG/crude ratio will turn more positive, and that both crude and ng will be staying up for the foreseeable future. Thus, larger distributions for many years are increasingly perceived to be in the cards;

    3. Many shareholders have large gains but are reluctant to pay both cap gain AND depletion recapure taxes and hence selling pressure is not easily brought about without a change in the fundamentals.

    I'm sure there are other factors, but these come to mind.

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    • Just Another Thought?

      Think we have seen quite of bit
      of Press on SJT as "Yield Investment"
      in different Financial Publications
      like Forbes, Kiplinger & Others.

      When they mention SJT Yield, I think
      Some Investors who are not aware of
      Oil or Natural Gas Trusts might start
      buying SJT which might be helping
      rise in SJT Price in last Six Months.


    • hotpanera2 - as usual, you make some good points. I can only add one more: from a T/A standpoint, we're in breakout mode after a sufficiently long base-building period. Contrast the 30-day chart (parabolic) with the three month chart (hill, valley, mountain) and then the one year chart, and the momentum of today, with high volume, is upward.

    • re. your first point (interest rates) - if the 10-year goes to 5.5%, the ENTIRE market would be less attractive

5.82-0.04(-0.68%)Sep 27 4:02 PMEDT